Compendium › Marcus Grave Dancer › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 34 trades executed

+111.60%
2 Years Return
$19,620.02
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$9,272.21
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
10.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 76.0/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 61.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,798
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,272.21
Current Value
$19,620.02
Total P&L
$10,347.82
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.79

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
24
Winners / Losers
18 / 6
Best Trade
+7.72%
Worst Trade
-6.06%
Avg Trade Return
+3.34%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$630,956.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$10,347.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$10,347.82
Gross Return
+111.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+111.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $9,272.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2024 9:30am ET $114.93 79 $9,079.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2024 11:50am ET $120.92 79 $9,552.94 $9,603.48 +$473.11
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2024 10:35am ET $130.00 73 $9,490.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 17, 2024 9:30am ET $138.63 73 $10,119.99 $10,233.47 +$629.99
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 9:55am ET $132.98 76 $10,106.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 5, 2024 11:20am ET $139.72 76 $10,618.34 $10,745.27 +$511.80
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2025 10:35am ET $141.17 76 $10,728.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $135.47 76 $10,295.72 $10,312.06 $-433.21
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $130.95 78 $10,213.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 9:30am ET $137.78 78 $10,746.84 $10,845.19 +$533.13
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $127.51 85 $10,838.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 10:15am ET $123.16 85 $10,468.60 $10,475.44 $-369.75
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $114.41 91 $10,411.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 10:00am ET $120.35 91 $10,952.29 $11,016.42 +$540.98
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET $125.06 88 $11,005.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2025 9:50am ET $131.46 88 $11,568.49 $11,579.62 +$563.21
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $117.70 98 $11,534.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 3:50pm ET $124.45 98 $12,196.10 $12,241.12 +$661.50
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET $113.65 107 $12,160.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET $109.91 107 $11,760.37 $11,841.48 $-399.65
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $104.49 113 $11,807.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 12:15pm ET $109.75 113 $12,401.92 $12,436.03 +$594.55
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $104.81 118 $12,367.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $98.46 118 $11,617.69 $11,686.14 $-749.89
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $88.22 132 $11,645.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET $93.90 132 $12,394.80 $12,435.90 +$749.76
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 9:30am ET $105.80 117 $12,378.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 1:50pm ET $102.47 117 $11,988.41 $12,045.70 $-390.19
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:55am ET $96.84 124 $12,008.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $103.85 124 $12,877.40 $12,914.94 +$869.24
(+7.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $105.15 122 $12,828.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 9:30am ET $113.27 122 $13,818.93 $13,905.57 +$990.63
(+7.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET $164.85 84 $13,847.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 9:35am ET $173.16 84 $14,545.44 $14,603.61 +$698.04
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $181.34 80 $14,506.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET $190.53 80 $15,242.40 $15,339.21 +$735.60
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $182.22 84 $15,306.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $194.33 84 $16,323.99 $16,356.72 +$1,017.51
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET $173.99 94 $16,355.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET $184.56 94 $17,348.64 $17,350.30 +$993.58
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $180.48 96 $17,326.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:40am ET $189.55 96 $18,196.32 $18,220.54 +$870.24
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $225.62 80 $18,049.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $218.75 80 $17,500.00 $17,670.94 $-549.60
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $198.35 89 $17,652.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:55am ET $209.23 89 $18,621.47 $18,639.70 +$968.76
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 88 $18,585.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $222.34 88 $19,565.92 $19,620.02 +$980.32
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,620.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,620.02
Total Return: +96.20%
Back to Marcus Grave Dancer