Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:53:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

70
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.9/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
10.5/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 80.1/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 69.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-70 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,927
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
186 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$20,009.92
Current Value
$28,752.75
Period P&L
$8,742.83
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.51

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
11 / 7
Best Trade
+7.20%
Worst Trade
-3.98%
Avg Trade Return
+2.22%
Avg Hold Time
8.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$875,522.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,742.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,742.83
Gross Return
+43.69%
Net Return (after fees)
+43.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 186 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Monday Gold had $20,009.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 12:25pm ET $1,060.32 18 $19,085.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:55am ET $1,119.05 18 $20,142.90 $20,803.01 +$1,057.23
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:35pm ET $1,082.00 19 $20,558.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.81 19 $21,751.39 $21,996.40 +$1,193.39
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,122.99 19 $21,336.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:25am ET $1,089.27 19 $20,696.13 $21,355.81 $-640.58
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET $1,061.74 20 $21,234.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET $1,029.61 20 $20,592.30 $20,713.31 $-642.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $934.66 22 $20,562.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:00am ET $981.99 22 $21,603.89 $21,754.68 +$1,041.37
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET $943.03 23 $21,689.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,001.99 23 $23,045.77 $23,110.76 +$1,356.08
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $994.01 23 $22,862.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,045.00 23 $24,035.00 $24,283.53 +$1,172.77
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $1,045.00 23 $24,035.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,097.93 23 $25,252.39 $25,500.92 +$1,217.39
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET $1,083.91 23 $24,929.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 11:20am ET $1,051.20 23 $24,177.71 $24,748.70 $-752.22
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,044.37 23 $24,020.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:10am ET $1,012.85 23 $23,295.55 $24,023.74 $-724.96
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $992.10 24 $23,810.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,058.68 24 $25,408.32 $25,621.66 +$1,597.92
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 11:15am ET $1,052.89 24 $25,269.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,011.03 24 $24,264.72 $24,617.02 $-1,004.64
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:40am ET $952.31 25 $23,807.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:15am ET $1,001.73 25 $25,043.25 $25,852.52 +$1,235.50
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 10:15am ET $1,022.79 25 $25,569.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,096.39 25 $27,409.75 $27,692.52 +$1,840.00
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET $1,059.89 26 $27,557.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:10am ET $1,115.00 26 $28,990.00 $29,125.38 +$1,432.86
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 12:30pm ET $1,128.69 25 $28,217.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET $1,186.26 25 $29,656.50 $30,564.63 +$1,439.25
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:00pm ET $1,151.09 26 $29,928.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $1,115.77 26 $29,010.02 $29,646.31 $-918.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:15am ET $1,066.03 27 $28,782.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,032.93 27 $27,889.11 $28,752.75 $-893.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $28,752.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$18,752.75
Total Return: +187.53%
Back to Marcus Monday Gold