Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › AVGO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVGO
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-7.50%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,436.18
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$18,849.25
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:56:11

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

50
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.6/25
Win Rate
5.6/15
Profit Factor
4.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 66.4/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 49.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$18,849.25
Current Value
$17,436.18
Period P&L
$-1,413.07
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.40

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-6.87%
Avg Trade Return
-1.84%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$147,572.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,413.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,413.07
Gross Return
-7.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $18,849.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:40am ET $378.24 49 $18,533.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $366.46 49 $17,956.54 $18,272.25 $-577.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $386.39 47 $18,160.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $408.15 47 $19,183.28 $19,295.22 +$1,022.97
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET $368.71 52 $19,172.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:00am ET $357.57 52 $18,593.38 $18,715.68 $-579.54
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:40am ET $372.52 50 $18,626.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $346.93 50 $17,346.50 $17,436.18 $-1,279.50
(-6.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,436.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,436.18
Total Return: +74.36%
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