Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › MS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 5 trades in period

+17.44%
Last 6 Months Return
$17,116.40
Current Value
80%
Win Rate
$14,574.14
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

58
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
8.7/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 75.5/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 58.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,574.14
Current Value
$17,116.40
Period P&L
$2,542.27
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
4 / 1
Best Trade
+5.06%
Worst Trade
-3.37%
Avg Trade Return
+3.35%
Avg Hold Time
15.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$162,615.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,542.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,542.27
Gross Return
+17.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $14,574.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $175.68 82 $14,405.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $184.54 82 $15,132.28 $15,300.65 +$726.52
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $188.26 81 $15,248.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $197.69 81 $16,012.89 $16,064.88 +$764.23
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $211.90 75 $15,892.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:45am ET $222.55 75 $16,691.62 $16,864.00 +$799.12
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $209.74 80 $16,779.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.35 80 $17,628.00 $17,712.80 +$848.80
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:10am ET $210.84 84 $17,710.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $203.74 84 $17,114.16 $17,116.40 $-596.40
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,116.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,116.40
Total Return: +71.16%
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