Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 25 trades executed

-4.90%
2 Years Return
$12,295.51
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$12,929.31
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:05:39

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 70%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.1/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 39.2/100
× Confidence 0.70 = 27.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (70%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
45,257
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
524 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$12,929.31
Current Value
$12,295.51
Total P&L
$-633.80
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
17
Winners / Losers
6 / 11
Best Trade
+5.46%
Worst Trade
-3.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
8.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$430,686.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-633.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-633.80
Gross Return
-4.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 524 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $12,929.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 11:05am ET $397.14 32 $12,708.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2024 10:35am ET $385.22 32 $12,327.07 $12,547.90 $-381.41
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 10:55am ET $360.73 34 $12,264.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2025 2:50pm ET $378.80 34 $12,879.20 $13,162.45 +$614.55
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY May 20, 2025 11:10am ET $381.10 34 $12,957.23 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2025 1:20pm ET $369.38 34 $12,558.92 $12,764.14 $-398.31
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 27, 2025 1:35pm ET $368.69 34 $12,535.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 10:35am ET $357.35 34 $12,149.90 $12,378.75 $-385.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2025 2:50pm ET $376.07 32 $12,034.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2025 10:05am ET $394.93 32 $12,637.76 $12,982.43 +$603.68
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 15, 2025 3:35pm ET $398.77 32 $12,760.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 5, 2025 9:30am ET $419.39 32 $13,420.42 $13,642.37 +$659.94
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 11:15am ET $391.19 34 $13,300.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 2:40pm ET $379.41 34 $12,899.77 $13,241.85 $-400.52
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 3:15pm ET $327.47 40 $13,098.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:15am ET $317.19 40 $12,687.60 $12,830.65 $-411.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:15am ET $334.88 38 $12,725.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $352.00 38 $13,376.00 $13,481.40 +$650.75
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:50am ET $323.89 41 $13,279.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $313.74 41 $12,863.34 $13,065.36 $-416.04
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:05pm ET $300.96 43 $12,941.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $291.12 43 $12,518.16 $12,642.24 $-423.12
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:25am ET $317.98 39 $12,401.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:50am ET $308.37 39 $12,026.43 $12,267.31 $-374.93
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $319.65 38 $12,146.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $337.10 38 $12,809.80 $12,930.41 +$663.10
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $347.35 37 $12,851.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $336.87 37 $12,464.19 $12,542.65 $-387.76
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 12:45pm ET $330.13 37 $12,214.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $346.77 37 $12,830.67 $13,158.51 +$615.86
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET $356.26 36 $12,825.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET $344.76 36 $12,411.36 $12,744.51 $-414.00
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 12:05pm ET $340.93 37 $12,614.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $328.80 37 $12,165.60 $12,295.51 $-449.00
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,295.51
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,295.51
Total Return: +22.96%
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