Compendium › Marcus Trend Dip › MS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Trend Dip's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 26 trades executed

+47.16%
2 Years Return
$17,116.40
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$11,630.81
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:22:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

58
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
8.7/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 75.5/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 58.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,952
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
522 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,630.81
Current Value
$17,116.40
Total P&L
$5,485.60
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.59

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
12 / 6
Best Trade
+5.23%
Worst Trade
-3.37%
Avg Trade Return
+2.26%
Avg Hold Time
13.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$506,089.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,485.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,485.60
Gross Return
+47.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+47.16%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 522 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Trend Dip had $11,630.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 17, 2024 2:15pm ET $119.70 97 $11,610.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2024 10:45am ET $116.10 97 $11,261.70 $11,281.60 $-349.20
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2024 11:45am ET $133.13 84 $11,182.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2024 10:30am ET $129.09 84 $10,843.56 $10,942.24 $-339.36
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2025 12:50pm ET $134.28 81 $10,876.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 10:05am ET $141.17 81 $11,434.77 $11,500.33 +$558.09
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 1:40pm ET $111.76 102 $11,399.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2025 11:20am ET $117.44 102 $11,978.88 $12,079.69 +$579.36
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 10:55am ET $114.68 105 $12,041.41 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2025 10:55am ET $120.45 105 $12,646.73 $12,685.01 +$605.31
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 12, 2025 10:50am ET $127.67 99 $12,639.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2025 10:50am ET $132.39 99 $13,106.61 $13,152.29 +$467.28
(+3.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2025 10:50am ET $135.43 97 $13,136.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2025 10:35am ET $142.30 97 $13,803.10 $13,818.68 +$666.39
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 12:15pm ET $141.25 97 $13,701.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2025 9:40am ET $148.49 97 $14,403.53 $14,520.96 +$702.28
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 1:10pm ET $148.37 97 $14,391.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2025 9:50am ET $156.13 97 $15,144.13 $15,273.19 +$752.24
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 11:20am ET $165.62 92 $15,236.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $160.49 92 $14,765.08 $14,801.69 $-471.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 11:35am ET $164.31 90 $14,787.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:55pm ET $158.94 90 $14,304.60 $14,318.39 $-483.30
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:15pm ET $162.02 88 $14,257.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 11:40am ET $170.13 88 $14,971.44 $15,032.51 +$714.12
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 3:00pm ET $174.45 86 $15,002.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:15am ET $169.12 86 $14,544.32 $14,574.13 $-458.38
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $175.68 82 $14,405.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $184.54 82 $15,132.28 $15,300.65 +$726.52
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $188.26 81 $15,248.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $197.69 81 $16,012.89 $16,064.88 +$764.23
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $211.90 75 $15,892.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:45am ET $222.55 75 $16,691.62 $16,864.00 +$799.12
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $209.74 80 $16,779.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.35 80 $17,628.00 $17,712.80 +$848.80
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:10am ET $210.84 84 $17,710.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $203.74 84 $17,114.16 $17,116.40 $-596.40
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,116.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,116.40
Total Return: +71.16%
Back to Marcus Trend Dip