Compendium › Momo Momentum › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Momo Momentum's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 23 trades in period

-53.31%
Last Year Return
$2,362.89
Current Value
22%
Win Rate
$4,693.79
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:44:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 4.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

14
+4.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.3 Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,139
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$4,693.79
Current Value
$2,362.89
Period P&L
$-2,502.45
Max Drawdown
-79.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
5 / 18
Best Trade
+10.63%
Worst Trade
-8.92%
Avg Trade Return
-2.70%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$134,318.07
Estimated Fees
$335.80
Gross P&L
$-2,502.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,838.24
Gross Return
-53.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-60.47%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $4,693.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 7:20pm ET $33.57 145 $4,858.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 2:55am ET $30.86 145 $4,466.56 $4,443.24 $-415.55
(-8.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 3:10am ET $30.97 143 $4,443.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 10:15pm ET $28.43 143 $4,078.83 $4,057.53 $-385.72
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 10:25pm ET $28.22 144 $4,057.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 5:55am ET $31.07 144 $4,467.30 $4,445.99 +$388.47
(+10.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.3d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 8:00pm ET $30.74 145 $4,445.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 3:25pm ET $28.27 145 $4,088.75 $4,067.41 $-378.58
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 7:05pm ET $14.62 278 $4,067.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 9:30pm ET $13.45 278 $3,741.91 $3,722.39 $-345.03
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 9:45pm ET $13.46 277 $3,722.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 12:10pm ET $12.38 277 $3,423.71 $3,405.84 $-316.54
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 7:15pm ET $13.90 245 $3,405.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET $12.66 245 $3,102.01 $3,085.74 $-320.10
(-8.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 8:05am ET $9.38 329 $3,085.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $8.89 329 $2,924.54 $2,924.54 $-176.22
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET $9.37 312 $2,924.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $8.88 312 $2,771.60 $2,771.60 $-167.18
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET $9.45 293 $2,771.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 4:40am ET $8.91 293 $2,613.22 $2,613.22 $-171.84
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:35am ET $9.39 278 $2,613.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:35pm ET $8.89 278 $2,474.07 $2,474.07 $-151.87
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 5, 2026 9:20pm ET $9.50 260 $2,474.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET $8.98 260 $2,338.65 $2,338.65 $-147.45
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET $9.22 254 $2,338.65 — — —
🔴 SELL May 10, 2026 11:50am ET $10.15 254 $2,574.54 $2,574.54 +$223.61
(+10.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
32.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 11:35pm ET $8.02 321 $2,574.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 6:50am ET $7.58 321 $2,433.94 $2,433.94 $-153.13
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 2:00am ET $6.58 370 $2,433.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:55am ET $6.24 370 $2,307.80 $2,307.80 $-137.99
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.4d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 2, 2026 1:25am ET $6.68 346 $2,307.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET $6.32 346 $2,183.68 $2,183.68 $-135.35
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.4d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:05pm ET $6.81 321 $2,183.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 15, 2026 6:40pm ET $6.42 321 $2,059.00 $2,059.00 $-135.29
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET $6.66 309 $2,059.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 8:20pm ET $7.34 309 $2,269.70 $2,269.70 +$199.87
(+10.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:55am ET $7.70 295 $2,269.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 13, 2026 4:35am ET $7.31 295 $2,156.20 $2,156.20 $-124.56
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50pm ET $8.68 249 $2,156.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $9.59 249 $2,383.10 $2,383.10 +$215.55
(+10.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 7:45pm ET $10.12 235 $2,383.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 10:35pm ET $9.60 235 $2,259.71 $2,259.71 $-135.00
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2026 7:55am ET $10.31 219 $2,259.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $11.41 219 $2,499.83 $2,499.83 +$228.23
(+10.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $11.30 221 $2,499.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:05am ET $10.68 221 $2,362.89 $2,362.89 $-149.09
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $2,362.89
Net Profit/Loss: $-7,637.11
Total Return: -76.37%
Back to Momo Momentum