PEPEUSD Momo Momentum's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 38 trades in period
-58.38%
Last Year Return
$17,228.80
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$35,688.40
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.0/35
Total Return
15.5/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality
24.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 24.1
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,171
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$35,688.40
Current Value
$17,228.80
Period P&L
$-20,833.19
Max Drawdown
-85.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
11 /
27
Best Trade
+13.47%
Worst Trade
-12.84%
Avg Trade Return
-1.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,795,727.64
Estimated Fees
$4,489.32
Gross P&L
$-20,833.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-25,322.51
Gross Return
-58.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-70.95%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $35,688.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 2:25am ET | $0.00000969 | 3,694,451,256 | $35,799.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 2:00pm ET | $0.00000890 | 3,694,451,256 | $32,880.62 | $32,708.92 |
$-3,090.32 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 7:15pm ET | $0.00000492 | 6,648,153,771 | $32,708.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 8:10pm ET | $0.00000452 | 6,648,153,771 | $30,049.66 | $29,892.76 |
$-2,816.16 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 8:15pm ET | $0.00000451 | 6,628,106,124 | $29,892.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000414 | 6,628,106,124 | $27,440.36 | $27,297.03 |
$-2,595.73 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 1, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000490 | 5,570,821,746 | $27,297.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000556 | 5,570,821,746 | $30,973.77 | $30,828.09 |
+$3,531.07 (+13.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 7:45am ET | $0.00000563 | 5,475,682,402 | $30,828.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 7:40pm ET | $0.00000623 | 5,475,682,402 | $34,113.50 | $33,951.15 |
+$3,123.06 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 7:50pm ET | $0.00000621 | 5,467,173,491 | $33,951.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 3:40am ET | $0.00000685 | 5,467,173,491 | $37,450.14 | $37,271.64 |
+$3,320.49 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 3:45am ET | $0.00000679 | 5,489,195,169 | $37,271.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 4:55am ET | $0.00000624 | 5,489,195,169 | $34,252.58 | $34,073.77 |
$-3,197.87 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 5:00am ET | $0.00000618 | 5,513,554,583 | $34,073.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000680 | 5,513,554,583 | $37,492.17 | $37,313.26 |
+$3,239.49 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 7:25pm ET | $0.00000680 | 5,487,243,576 | $37,313.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.00000624 | 5,487,243,576 | $34,240.40 | $34,061.52 |
$-3,251.74 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000619 | 5,502,668,138 | $34,061.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000569 | 5,502,668,138 | $31,310.18 | $31,146.75 |
$-2,914.76 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 9:15am ET | $0.00000571 | 5,454,772,760 | $31,146.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $0.00000524 | 5,454,772,760 | $28,583.01 | $28,433.68 |
$-2,713.07 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000521 | 5,457,521,086 | $28,433.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.00000477 | 5,457,521,086 | $26,032.38 | $25,896.21 |
$-2,537.47 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 8:25pm ET | $0.00000414 | 6,255,123,188 | $25,896.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:40am ET | $0.00000392 | 6,255,123,188 | $24,520.08 | $24,520.08 |
$-1,502.17 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.00000366 | 6,699,475,410 | $24,520.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:20pm ET | $0.00000347 | 6,699,475,410 | $23,247.18 | $23,247.18 |
$-1,392.32 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 2:20am ET | $0.00000385 | 6,038,228,571 | $23,247.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000365 | 6,038,228,571 | $22,039.53 | $22,039.53 |
$-1,320.86 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET | $0.00000344 | 6,406,840,116 | $22,039.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 8:25am ET | $0.00000326 | 6,406,840,116 | $20,886.30 | $20,886.30 |
$-1,260.55 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 29, 2026 8:20pm ET | $0.00000335 | 6,234,716,418 | $20,886.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 6:40pm ET | $0.00000371 | 6,234,716,418 | $23,130.80 | $23,130.80 |
+$2,134.46 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 6:55pm ET | $0.00000371 | 6,234,716,981 | $23,130.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 8:30pm ET | $0.00000352 | 6,234,716,981 | $21,946.20 | $21,946.20 |
$-1,297.29 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:40pm ET | $0.00000392 | 5,598,520,408 | $21,946.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000372 | 5,598,520,408 | $20,826.50 | $20,826.50 |
$-1,226.64 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 6:30am ET | $0.00000414 | 5,030,555,556 | $20,826.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:20am ET | $0.00000393 | 5,030,555,556 | $19,770.08 | $19,770.08 |
$-1,157.91 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 11:35pm ET | $0.00000308 | 6,418,857,143 | $19,770.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000292 | 6,418,857,143 | $18,743.06 | $18,743.06 |
$-1,123.30 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 4:50pm ET | $0.00000276 | 6,790,963,768 | $18,743.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:10am ET | $0.00000261 | 6,790,963,768 | $17,724.42 | $17,724.42 |
$-1,109.81 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 2:35am ET | $0.00000266 | 6,663,315,789 | $17,724.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 14, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000293 | 6,663,315,789 | $19,523.52 | $19,523.52 |
+$1,705.98 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2026 5:15pm ET | $0.00000273 | 7,151,472,527 | $19,523.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:15pm ET | $0.00000259 | 7,151,472,527 | $18,522.31 | $18,522.31 |
$-1,096.32 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $0.00000287 | 6,453,766,551 | $18,522.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000272 | 6,453,766,551 | $17,554.25 | $17,554.25 |
$-1,058.26 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000286 | 6,137,849,650 | $17,554.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 4:15am ET | $0.00000270 | 6,137,849,650 | $16,572.19 | $16,572.19 |
$-1,067.37 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.00000274 | 6,048,244,526 | $16,572.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 4:15am ET | $0.00000305 | 6,048,244,526 | $18,447.15 | $18,447.15 |
+$1,787.41 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 4:25am ET | $0.00000307 | 6,008,843,648 | $18,447.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 1:45am ET | $0.00000338 | 6,008,843,648 | $20,309.89 | $20,309.89 |
+$1,765.85 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 6:35am ET | $0.00000369 | 5,504,035,230 | $20,309.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 7:35am ET | $0.00000350 | 5,504,035,230 | $19,264.12 | $19,264.12 |
$-1,144.70 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $0.00000386 | 4,990,704,663 | $19,264.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:15pm ET | $0.00000426 | 4,990,704,663 | $21,260.40 | $21,260.40 |
+$1,894.97 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 12:25am ET | $0.00000444 | 4,788,378,378 | $21,260.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.00000387 | 4,788,378,378 | $18,531.02 | $18,531.02 |
$-2,828.85 (-12.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 2:40am ET | $0.00000408 | 4,541,916,667 | $18,531.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 2:40am ET | $0.00000386 | 4,541,916,667 | $17,531.80 | $17,531.80 |
$-1,089.38 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.00000372 | 4,712,849,462 | $17,531.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000353 | 4,712,849,462 | $16,636.36 | $16,636.36 |
$-980.86 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000343 | 4,850,250,729 | $16,636.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $0.00000325 | 4,850,250,729 | $15,763.31 | $15,763.31 |
$-954.04 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 12:50pm ET | $0.00000402 | 3,921,221,393 | $15,763.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000443 | 3,921,221,393 | $17,371.01 | $17,371.01 |
+$1,524.86 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.00000460 | 3,776,306,522 | $17,371.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:00pm ET | $0.00000508 | 3,776,306,522 | $19,183.64 | $19,183.64 |
+$1,721.24 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $0.00000506 | 3,791,233,202 | $19,183.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000480 | 3,791,233,202 | $18,197.92 | $18,197.92 |
$-1,079.17 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 8:45pm ET | $0.00000507 | 3,589,333,333 | $18,197.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.00000480 | 3,589,333,333 | $17,228.80 | $17,228.80 |
$-1,057.69 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,228.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,228.80
Total Return:
+72.29%