Compendium › Momo Momentum › DOTUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOTUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Momo Momentum's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-8.41%
Last 3 Months Return
$2,478.19
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$2,464.55
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:16:42

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.5/10
Raw Quality 2.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 2.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.9%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,548
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$2,464.55
Current Value
$2,478.19
Period P&L
$-207.33
Max Drawdown
-76.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+10.27%
Worst Trade
-5.24%
Avg Trade Return
-1.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$20,845.54
Estimated Fees
$52.11
Gross P&L
$-207.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-259.44
Gross Return
-8.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.53%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $2,464.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 6, 2026 9:00pm ET $1.02 2,573 $2,633.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 6, 2026 11:40pm ET $0.9706 2,573 $2,497.54 $2,497.54 $-148.69
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 7, 2026 9:25am ET $1.04 2,398 $2,497.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET $1.15 2,398 $2,754.13 $2,754.13 +$243.46
(+10.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:20am ET $1.17 2,353 $2,754.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 4:55pm ET $1.11 2,353 $2,615.31 $2,615.31 $-152.25
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2026 12:55pm ET $1.17 2,240 $2,615.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $1.11 2,240 $2,478.19 $2,478.19 $-149.85
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $2,478.19
Net Profit/Loss: $-7,521.81
Total Return: -75.22%
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