Compendium › Momo Momentum › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Momo Momentum's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 5 trades in period

+1.91%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,396.27
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$8,238.53
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:16:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 8.5/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 7.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,238.53
Current Value
$8,396.27
Period P&L
$157.72
Max Drawdown
-45.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+11.12%
Worst Trade
-7.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.70%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$74,984.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$157.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$157.72
Gross Return
+1.91%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.91%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $8,238.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 105 $8,192.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $72.17 105 $7,577.85 $7,624.30 $-614.25
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:45am ET $75.45 101 $7,620.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $71.54 101 $7,225.54 $7,229.39 $-394.91
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:55am ET $76.10 94 $7,153.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 3:35pm ET $72.28 94 $6,793.85 $6,869.61 $-359.78
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 10:35am ET $63.30 108 $6,836.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $70.34 108 $7,596.94 $7,630.15 +$760.54
(+11.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:15am ET $71.13 107 $7,610.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET $78.29 107 $8,377.02 $8,396.27 +$766.12
(+10.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,396.27
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,603.73
Total Return: -16.04%
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