ARM Momo Momentum's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 68 trades executed
+31.24%
2 Years Return
$37,360.20
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$28,466.52
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
58
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
31.7/35
Total Return
20.3/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
63.6/100
× Confidence 0.92
= 58.5
30-Day Momentum
9
+3.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-49 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
61,105
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$28,466.52
Current Value
$37,360.20
Total P&L
$8,893.69
Max Drawdown
-30.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
52
Winners / Losers
23 /
29
Best Trade
+15.00%
Worst Trade
-9.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.94%
Avg Hold Time
6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$3,245,618.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,893.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,893.69
Gross Return
+31.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+31.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $28,466.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 12, 2024 12:05pm ET | $139.50 | 198 | $27,621.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2024 12:05pm ET | $138.42 | 198 | $27,407.16 | $27,529.99 |
$-213.84 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2024 12:15pm ET | $139.00 | 198 | $27,522.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2024 9:30am ET | $155.03 | 198 | $30,695.25 | $30,703.24 |
+$3,173.25 (+11.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $159.86 | 192 | $30,692.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2024 9:30am ET | $144.10 | 192 | $27,666.24 | $27,677.03 |
$-3,026.21 (-9.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET | $148.84 | 185 | $27,534.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 10:10am ET | $136.87 | 185 | $25,320.03 | $25,462.58 |
$-2,214.45 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $141.11 | 180 | $25,399.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 13, 2024 9:50am ET | $155.34 | 180 | $27,961.18 | $28,023.96 |
+$2,561.38 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2024 10:00am ET | $146.20 | 191 | $27,924.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 10:30am ET | $134.07 | 191 | $25,606.63 | $25,706.48 |
$-2,317.48 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $139.88 | 183 | $25,597.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 12:55pm ET | $154.53 | 183 | $28,278.99 | $28,388.35 |
+$2,681.87 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2025 1:10pm ET | $179.76 | 157 | $28,222.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2025 9:40am ET | $164.60 | 157 | $25,842.20 | $26,008.23 |
$-2,380.12 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 9:40am ET | $165.41 | 157 | $25,969.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $149.53 | 157 | $23,476.21 | $23,515.07 |
$-2,493.16 (-9.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2025 9:35am ET | $146.75 | 160 | $23,480.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2025 10:35am ET | $161.66 | 160 | $25,865.60 | $25,900.65 |
+$2,385.58 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 10:35am ET | $157.77 | 164 | $25,873.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $173.58 | 164 | $28,467.12 | $28,494.31 |
+$2,593.66 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $167.81 | 169 | $28,359.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2025 10:25am ET | $154.20 | 169 | $26,059.80 | $26,195.06 |
$-2,299.25 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $157.40 | 166 | $26,128.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 1:55pm ET | $144.70 | 166 | $24,019.37 | $24,086.03 |
$-2,109.03 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $112.21 | 214 | $24,012.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 2, 2025 2:25pm ET | $123.60 | 214 | $26,450.40 | $26,523.49 |
+$2,437.46 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 2:25pm ET | $122.73 | 216 | $26,509.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 1:15pm ET | $135.09 | 216 | $29,179.44 | $29,193.25 |
+$2,669.76 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 1:20pm ET | $134.90 | 216 | $29,138.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 12:25pm ET | $123.32 | 216 | $26,637.12 | $26,691.97 |
$-2,501.28 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $129.84 | 205 | $26,617.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $143.58 | 205 | $29,432.88 | $29,507.65 |
+$2,815.68 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 9:55am ET | $140.04 | 210 | $29,408.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 10:40am ET | $154.33 | 210 | $32,409.30 | $32,508.55 |
+$3,000.90 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $158.78 | 204 | $32,391.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 2:25pm ET | $145.55 | 204 | $29,691.18 | $29,808.61 |
$-2,699.94 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 2:25pm ET | $148.67 | 200 | $29,734.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 10:55am ET | $163.68 | 200 | $32,736.00 | $32,810.61 |
+$3,002.00 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 10:55am ET | $153.76 | 213 | $32,750.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $141.22 | 213 | $30,079.84 | $30,139.57 |
$-2,671.04 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $155.56 | 193 | $30,022.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $142.85 | 193 | $27,569.18 | $27,686.63 |
$-2,452.93 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $139.86 | 197 | $27,552.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $153.90 | 197 | $30,318.30 | $30,452.51 |
+$2,765.88 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $157.02 | 193 | $30,304.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 2:50pm ET | $173.43 | 193 | $33,471.03 | $33,618.68 |
+$3,166.17 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 2:55pm ET | $172.26 | 195 | $33,590.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 1:55pm ET | $170.12 | 195 | $33,172.43 | $33,200.40 |
$-418.27 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 1:55pm ET | $161.83 | 205 | $33,175.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 10:40am ET | $148.49 | 205 | $30,440.45 | $30,465.70 |
$-2,734.70 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $117.66 | 258 | $30,356.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $107.82 | 258 | $27,817.59 | $27,927.01 |
$-2,538.69 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.23 | 234 | $27,899.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $124.78 | 234 | $29,198.52 | $29,225.66 |
+$1,298.65 (+4.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $128.59 | 227 | $29,189.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $122.16 | 227 | $27,729.53 | $27,765.26 |
$-1,460.40 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 201 | $27,703.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $152.91 | 201 | $30,735.91 | $30,797.34 |
+$3,032.08 (+10.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $145.30 | 211 | $30,658.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.95 | 211 | $34,171.45 | $34,310.49 |
+$3,513.15 (+11.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $186.49 | 183 | $34,127.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $205.57 | 183 | $37,620.22 | $37,803.04 |
+$3,492.55 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $229.64 | 164 | $37,660.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 164 | $35,637.20 | $35,779.28 |
$-2,023.76 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $214.01 | 167 | $35,739.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $202.41 | 167 | $33,802.47 | $33,842.08 |
$-1,937.20 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.92 | 147 | $33,650.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $217.21 | 147 | $31,929.14 | $32,120.36 |
$-1,721.72 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $217.65 | 147 | $31,994.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $206.01 | 147 | $30,283.47 | $30,409.28 |
$-1,711.08 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $219.50 | 138 | $30,291.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:20am ET | $208.32 | 138 | $28,748.85 | $28,867.13 |
$-1,542.15 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $254.39 | 113 | $28,746.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $281.07 | 113 | $31,760.91 | $31,881.97 |
+$3,014.84 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $302.70 | 105 | $31,783.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $333.50 | 105 | $35,017.51 | $35,115.98 |
+$3,234.01 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.64 | 88 | $34,816.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $372.29 | 88 | $32,761.52 | $33,061.18 |
$-2,054.80 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $317.58 | 104 | $33,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $353.54 | 104 | $36,768.16 | $36,801.02 |
+$3,739.84 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:05am ET | $396.15 | 92 | $36,445.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $438.13 | 92 | $40,307.96 | $40,663.18 |
+$3,862.16 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $330.17 | 123 | $40,610.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 123 | $37,629.39 | $37,682.27 |
$-2,980.91 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.53 | 115 | $37,435.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.93 | 115 | $34,722.52 | $34,968.83 |
$-2,713.44 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $259.00 | 135 | $34,965.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.53 | 135 | $38,546.55 | $38,550.38 |
+$3,581.55 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.68 | 153 | $38,354.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $237.97 | 153 | $36,409.41 | $36,605.75 |
$-1,944.63 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $237.20 | 154 | $36,528.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.88 | 154 | $40,329.52 | $40,406.47 |
+$3,800.72 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $293.76 | 137 | $40,244.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $276.01 | 137 | $37,813.15 | $37,975.18 |
$-2,431.29 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $287.30 | 132 | $37,923.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $272.75 | 132 | $36,003.52 | $36,055.10 |
$-1,920.08 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $263.48 | 136 | $35,833.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $250.14 | 136 | $34,019.52 | $34,240.89 |
$-1,814.21 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $255.24 | 134 | $34,201.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.38 | 134 | $32,478.92 | $32,518.32 |
$-1,722.57 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $258.23 | 125 | $32,279.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $296.97 | 125 | $37,121.25 | $37,360.20 |
+$4,841.88 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$37,360.20
Net Profit/Loss:
+$27,360.20
Total Return:
+273.60%