RIVN Momo Momentum's Analysis
2024-02-16 14:45:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 58 trades executed
+15.75%
2 Years Return
$13,946.70
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$12,049.21
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
2.5/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
24.8/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 21.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
71,884
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$12,049.21
Current Value
$13,946.70
Total P&L
$1,897.50
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
43
Winners / Losers
19 /
24
Best Trade
+15.61%
Worst Trade
-12.79%
Avg Trade Return
+0.75%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,578,488.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,897.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,897.50
Gross Return
+15.75%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.75%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $12,049.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $10.60 | 1,136 | $12,041.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 9:30am ET | $12.25 | 1,136 | $13,921.00 | $13,928.73 |
+$1,879.51 (+15.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:30am ET | $11.79 | 1,181 | $13,923.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 12:35pm ET | $10.76 | 1,181 | $12,707.68 | $12,712.41 |
$-1,216.31 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $11.35 | 1,120 | $12,712.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 29, 2024 11:05am ET | $12.57 | 1,120 | $14,076.94 | $14,077.36 |
+$1,364.94 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2024 2:00pm ET | $11.63 | 1,210 | $14,072.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2024 10:25am ET | $12.80 | 1,210 | $15,481.95 | $15,487.01 |
+$1,409.65 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 6, 2024 10:50am ET | $13.19 | 1,174 | $15,479.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 9:50am ET | $14.54 | 1,174 | $17,071.37 | $17,079.19 |
+$1,592.18 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:55am ET | $13.95 | 1,224 | $17,068.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2024 2:15pm ET | $15.40 | 1,224 | $18,849.60 | $18,860.11 |
+$1,780.92 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2024 2:20pm ET | $14.78 | 1,276 | $18,859.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 2:40pm ET | $13.60 | 1,276 | $17,347.22 | $17,347.79 |
$-1,512.32 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 2:40pm ET | $13.11 | 1,322 | $17,337.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2024 10:35am ET | $14.64 | 1,322 | $19,347.47 | $19,357.50 |
+$2,009.70 (+11.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2025 10:35am ET | $13.49 | 1,434 | $19,344.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $14.98 | 1,434 | $21,481.32 | $21,494.16 |
+$2,136.66 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $16.00 | 1,343 | $21,481.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $14.66 | 1,343 | $19,693.35 | $19,706.22 |
$-1,787.94 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $13.70 | 1,438 | $19,700.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $12.56 | 1,438 | $18,054.09 | $18,059.71 |
$-1,646.51 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $14.26 | 1,266 | $18,046.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $12.82 | 1,266 | $16,230.12 | $16,243.00 |
$-1,816.71 (-10.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $12.22 | 1,329 | $16,240.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2025 12:05pm ET | $13.48 | 1,329 | $17,908.28 | $17,910.89 |
+$1,667.90 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 12:15pm ET | $12.59 | 1,422 | $17,902.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 1:45pm ET | $11.57 | 1,422 | $16,445.43 | $16,453.34 |
$-1,457.55 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $11.41 | 1,442 | $16,453.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 25, 2025 1:20pm ET | $12.56 | 1,442 | $18,113.11 | $18,113.23 |
+$1,659.89 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $13.08 | 1,384 | $18,109.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 10:55am ET | $14.54 | 1,384 | $20,116.44 | $20,120.31 |
+$2,007.08 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 11:05am ET | $14.74 | 1,365 | $20,113.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 1:45pm ET | $16.21 | 1,365 | $22,126.65 | $22,133.68 |
+$2,013.38 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 1:50pm ET | $17.02 | 1,300 | $22,126.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 1,300 | $20,241.00 | $20,248.55 |
$-1,885.13 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.61 | 1,297 | $20,239.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $14.35 | 1,297 | $18,613.51 | $18,622.37 |
$-1,626.18 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $14.20 | 1,311 | $18,616.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $13.76 | 1,311 | $18,032.81 | $18,038.98 |
$-583.39 (-3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $13.64 | 1,322 | $18,034.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2025 12:55pm ET | $15.01 | 1,322 | $19,843.22 | $19,848.14 |
+$1,809.16 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 1:10pm ET | $13.60 | 1,459 | $19,835.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 10:30am ET | $14.98 | 1,459 | $21,848.53 | $21,861.56 |
+$2,013.42 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 10:40am ET | $15.43 | 1,416 | $21,854.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $13.46 | 1,416 | $19,059.36 | $19,066.37 |
$-2,795.18 (-12.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $15.10 | 1,262 | $19,056.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 12:55pm ET | $16.64 | 1,262 | $20,999.68 | $21,009.85 |
+$1,943.48 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 12:55pm ET | $17.30 | 1,214 | $20,996.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.52 | 1,214 | $18,841.28 | $18,855.00 |
$-2,154.85 (-10.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $14.89 | 1,266 | $18,844.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 2:10pm ET | $16.38 | 1,266 | $20,734.17 | $20,744.76 |
+$1,889.76 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 10:40am ET | $17.14 | 1,210 | $20,733.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:50am ET | $19.01 | 1,210 | $23,002.22 | $23,013.51 |
+$2,268.75 (+10.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:50am ET | $18.81 | 1,223 | $23,004.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $20.84 | 1,223 | $25,487.32 | $25,496.20 |
+$2,482.69 (+10.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $22.31 | 1,142 | $25,478.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $20.43 | 1,142 | $23,331.06 | $23,349.24 |
$-2,146.96 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $20.23 | 1,154 | $23,345.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.88 | 1,154 | $20,627.75 | $20,631.57 |
$-2,717.67 (-11.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:55am ET | $15.40 | 1,340 | $20,629.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.62 | 1,340 | $19,590.80 | $19,593.07 |
$-1,038.50 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.71 | 1,172 | $19,584.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $15.86 | 1,172 | $18,593.78 | $18,602.73 |
$-990.34 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.53 | 1,125 | $18,596.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.65 | 1,125 | $17,600.74 | $17,607.22 |
$-995.51 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.70 | 1,121 | $17,599.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.91 | 1,121 | $16,714.11 | $16,721.63 |
$-885.59 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $16.10 | 1,038 | $16,716.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $17.74 | 1,038 | $18,414.12 | $18,418.76 |
+$1,697.13 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.25 | 1,067 | $18,411.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.27 | 1,067 | $17,365.42 | $17,373.10 |
$-1,045.66 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.03 | 1,083 | $17,360.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 12:40pm ET | $15.22 | 1,083 | $16,477.85 | $16,490.35 |
$-882.75 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.26 | 1,080 | $16,480.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $16.82 | 1,080 | $18,165.60 | $18,175.15 |
+$1,684.80 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.32 | 992 | $18,168.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.35 | 992 | $17,216.16 | $17,222.83 |
$-952.32 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.33 | 993 | $17,208.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $16.44 | 993 | $16,329.88 | $16,344.02 |
$-878.81 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.51 | 989 | $16,328.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.63 | 989 | $15,458.07 | $15,473.70 |
$-870.32 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.75 | 923 | $15,464.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.91 | 923 | $14,689.54 | $14,698.38 |
$-775.32 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.84 | 928 | $14,694.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.02 | 928 | $13,943.20 | $13,946.70 |
$-751.68 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,946.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,946.70
Total Return:
+39.47%