Compendium › Momo Momentum › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Momo Momentum's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+41.54%
2 Years Return
$14,471.21
Current Value
85%
Win Rate
$10,224.38
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:13:39

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 22, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 48%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.8/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
14.2/15
Profit Factor
7.6/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality 62.2/100
× Confidence 0.48 = 29.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (48%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
53,601
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
525 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,224.38
Current Value
$14,471.21
Total P&L
$4,246.82
Max Drawdown
-8.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.74

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
11 / 2
Best Trade
+10.08%
Worst Trade
-8.36%
Avg Trade Return
+3.30%
Avg Hold Time
19.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$311,930.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,246.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,246.82
Gross Return
+41.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+41.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 525 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $10,224.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 5, 2024 9:40am ET $105.00 91 $9,555.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2024 9:40am ET $111.88 91 $10,180.63 $10,257.60 +$625.40
(+6.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2024 9:30am ET $111.97 91 $10,189.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2024 9:30am ET $115.26 91 $10,488.66 $10,556.99 +$299.39
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2024 9:30am ET $115.41 91 $10,502.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET $114.13 91 $10,385.60 $10,440.28 $-116.71
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2024 9:40am ET $117.83 88 $10,369.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2024 9:40am ET $118.32 88 $10,411.72 $10,482.96 +$42.68
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
5 🟢 BUY May 2, 2025 9:30am ET $107.72 97 $10,448.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $114.48 97 $11,104.32 $11,138.92 +$655.96
(+6.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
6 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 9:40am ET $113.07 98 $11,080.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2025 9:40am ET $120.68 98 $11,826.64 $11,885.19 +$746.27
(+6.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET $121.22 98 $11,879.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2025 9:30am ET $128.74 98 $12,616.52 $12,622.64 +$737.45
(+6.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 11, 2025 9:35am ET $127.85 98 $12,528.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 9:35am ET $133.07 98 $13,040.86 $13,134.69 +$512.05
(+4.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2025 9:30am ET $138.38 94 $13,007.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET $145.11 94 $13,640.59 $13,768.04 +$633.34
(+4.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 9:40am ET $145.49 94 $13,676.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 9:40am ET $150.83 94 $14,178.02 $14,270.00 +$501.96
(+3.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 9:40am ET $151.25 94 $14,217.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET $138.61 94 $13,028.87 $13,081.13 $-1,188.87
(-8.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $145.16 90 $13,064.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $146.02 90 $13,141.80 $13,158.53 +$77.40
(+0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
21d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 91 $13,028.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 1:10pm ET $157.59 91 $14,340.69 $14,471.21 +$1,312.68
(+10.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,471.21
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,471.21
Total Return: +44.71%
Back to Momo Momentum