MRNA Momo Momentum's Analysis
2024-03-08 14:40:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 58 trades executed
+32.97%
2 Years Return
$11,508.78
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$8,655.02
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
1.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
18.1/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 16.2
30-Day Momentum
23
+10.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.1
Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
63,266
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$8,655.02
Current Value
$11,508.78
Total P&L
$2,853.76
Max Drawdown
-67.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
49
Winners / Losers
22 /
27
Best Trade
+12.24%
Worst Trade
-10.16%
Avg Trade Return
+0.96%
Avg Hold Time
4.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$737,904.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,853.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,853.76
Gross Return
+32.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+32.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $8,655.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.95 | 196 | $8,613.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $39.48 | 196 | $7,738.08 | $7,779.89 |
$-875.14 (-10.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $45.09 | 172 | $7,755.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 24, 2025 2:00pm ET | $41.34 | 172 | $7,110.48 | $7,134.89 |
$-645.00 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $43.37 | 164 | $7,112.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2025 2:45pm ET | $39.88 | 164 | $6,539.52 | $6,561.73 |
$-573.16 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $37.14 | 176 | $6,536.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 9:45am ET | $33.92 | 176 | $5,969.92 | $5,995.01 |
$-566.72 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $34.03 | 176 | $5,988.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $37.50 | 176 | $6,600.00 | $6,606.61 |
+$611.60 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $35.16 | 187 | $6,573.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $31.76 | 187 | $5,939.12 | $5,971.74 |
$-634.87 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $27.39 | 218 | $5,971.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 1:20pm ET | $25.18 | 218 | $5,489.24 | $5,489.96 |
$-481.78 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.48 | 199 | $5,467.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.40 | 199 | $5,451.61 | $5,473.80 |
$-16.16 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $28.03 | 195 | $5,465.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $25.68 | 195 | $5,007.89 | $5,015.84 |
$-457.96 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $30.58 | 164 | $5,015.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $33.86 | 164 | $5,552.22 | $5,552.94 |
+$537.10 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 10:05am ET | $33.78 | 164 | $5,539.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 1:00pm ET | $31.07 | 164 | $5,095.48 | $5,108.50 |
$-444.44 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 1:40pm ET | $31.43 | 162 | $5,090.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $34.90 | 162 | $5,653.82 | $5,671.47 |
+$562.97 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 10:05am ET | $34.85 | 162 | $5,645.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 11:30am ET | $32.06 | 162 | $5,193.72 | $5,219.49 |
$-451.98 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 11:30am ET | $32.56 | 160 | $5,209.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 2:05pm ET | $29.92 | 160 | $4,787.20 | $4,796.96 |
$-422.53 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:10am ET | $27.36 | 175 | $4,787.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $26.98 | 175 | $4,720.63 | $4,730.46 |
$-66.50 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET | $27.05 | 174 | $4,706.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 2:10pm ET | $24.83 | 174 | $4,320.42 | $4,344.18 |
$-386.28 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $25.28 | 171 | $4,322.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 3:40pm ET | $27.83 | 171 | $4,758.21 | $4,779.51 |
+$435.33 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 3:40pm ET | $28.13 | 169 | $4,753.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.04 | 169 | $5,245.76 | $5,272.15 |
+$492.64 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.37 | 168 | $5,269.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $34.64 | 168 | $5,819.52 | $5,822.35 |
+$550.20 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $34.68 | 167 | $5,791.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.76 | 167 | $5,303.92 | $5,334.71 |
$-487.64 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:55am ET | $31.22 | 170 | $5,307.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $34.45 | 170 | $5,855.65 | $5,882.96 |
+$548.25 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $34.85 | 168 | $5,854.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.36 | 168 | $6,443.64 | $6,471.80 |
+$588.84 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $39.86 | 162 | $6,457.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.38 | 162 | $7,188.75 | $7,203.23 |
+$731.43 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.72 | 142 | $7,202.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $46.57 | 142 | $6,612.94 | $6,613.91 |
$-589.31 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $44.70 | 147 | $6,570.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $40.92 | 147 | $6,015.24 | $6,058.25 |
$-555.66 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $40.10 | 151 | $6,055.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $41.91 | 151 | $6,328.41 | $6,331.56 |
+$273.31 (+4.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.90 | 135 | $6,331.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.49 | 135 | $7,086.15 | $7,086.48 |
+$754.92 (+11.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.80 | 131 | $7,047.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.10 | 131 | $6,693.56 | $6,732.24 |
$-354.24 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.10 | 126 | $6,690.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:50pm ET | $58.88 | 126 | $7,418.53 | $7,460.17 |
+$727.93 (+10.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $51.86 | 143 | $7,416.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $57.25 | 143 | $8,186.75 | $8,230.30 |
+$770.13 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $49.90 | 164 | $8,183.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 164 | $9,102.00 | $9,148.70 |
+$918.40 (+11.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $47.82 | 191 | $9,133.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $45.09 | 191 | $8,612.19 | $8,627.27 |
$-521.43 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $46.65 | 184 | $8,584.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.69 | 184 | $9,511.88 | $9,554.63 |
+$927.36 (+10.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.99 | 187 | $9,535.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.33 | 187 | $10,532.78 | $10,552.27 |
+$997.64 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $57.46 | 183 | $10,515.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $54.48 | 183 | $9,970.57 | $10,007.68 |
$-544.59 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $48.04 | 208 | $9,992.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.56 | 208 | $9,477.00 | $9,492.36 |
$-515.32 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $50.96 | 186 | $9,477.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $48.10 | 186 | $8,946.60 | $8,961.33 |
$-531.03 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $55.35 | 161 | $8,911.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $61.13 | 161 | $9,841.93 | $9,891.91 |
+$930.58 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $62.47 | 158 | $9,870.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $58.05 | 158 | $9,171.90 | $9,193.55 |
$-698.36 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $64.25 | 143 | $9,187.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.11 | 143 | $10,311.73 | $10,318.24 |
+$1,124.69 (+12.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $76.58 | 134 | $10,262.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $84.49 | 134 | $11,321.66 | $11,377.51 |
+$1,059.27 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $68.93 | 165 | $11,374.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $65.27 | 165 | $10,769.55 | $10,772.78 |
$-604.73 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $57.54 | 187 | $10,759.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $54.59 | 187 | $10,208.33 | $10,221.13 |
$-551.65 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 86 | $10,156.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $130.00 | 86 | $11,180.00 | $11,244.58 |
+$1,023.45 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.45 | 77 | $11,122.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $134.23 | 77 | $10,335.92 | $10,457.85 |
$-786.73 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.38 | 70 | $10,316.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $139.65 | 70 | $9,775.50 | $9,916.76 |
$-541.09 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $143.51 | 69 | $9,902.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $136.25 | 69 | $9,401.25 | $9,415.82 |
$-500.94 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $144.51 | 65 | $9,393.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $159.84 | 65 | $10,389.60 | $10,412.27 |
+$996.45 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $163.43 | 63 | $10,295.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $180.83 | 63 | $11,392.29 | $11,508.78 |
+$1,096.51 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,508.78
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,508.78
Total Return:
+15.09%