TQQQ Momo Momentum's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 51 trades executed
-12.84%
2 Years Return
$8,396.27
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$9,632.80
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
8.5/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 7.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,588
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,632.80
Current Value
$8,396.27
Total P&L
$-1,236.55
Max Drawdown
-45.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
40
Winners / Losers
19 /
21
Best Trade
+11.44%
Worst Trade
-9.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
9.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$680,712.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,236.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,236.55
Gross Return
-12.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.84%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Momo Momentum had $9,632.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $37.17 | 259 | $9,627.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2024 11:05am ET | $33.97 | 259 | $8,798.88 | $8,804.65 |
$-828.15 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2024 11:05am ET | $34.95 | 251 | $8,773.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2024 11:05am ET | $37.36 | 251 | $9,377.28 | $9,408.86 |
+$604.21 (+6.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2024 11:05am ET | $36.85 | 255 | $9,395.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2024 9:55am ET | $40.66 | 255 | $10,368.30 | $10,381.68 |
+$972.82 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 8, 2024 9:55am ET | $41.24 | 251 | $10,351.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 10:10am ET | $37.91 | 251 | $9,515.41 | $9,545.88 |
$-835.80 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $38.41 | 248 | $9,525.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $42.38 | 248 | $10,510.24 | $10,530.44 |
+$984.56 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 9:35am ET | $43.08 | 244 | $10,510.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $39.49 | 244 | $9,636.73 | $9,656.87 |
$-873.57 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2024 9:40am ET | $41.71 | 231 | $9,633.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 12:45pm ET | $38.37 | 231 | $8,862.32 | $8,885.28 |
$-771.59 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2025 9:45am ET | $43.41 | 204 | $8,855.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $39.46 | 204 | $8,049.84 | $8,080.09 |
$-805.19 (-9.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $42.60 | 189 | $8,051.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $39.13 | 189 | $7,396.04 | $7,424.24 |
$-655.85 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.40 | 175 | $7,419.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $38.99 | 175 | $6,823.25 | $6,828.37 |
$-595.88 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.31 | 232 | $6,799.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.42 | 232 | $7,521.72 | $7,550.75 |
+$722.38 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 9:45am ET | $33.58 | 224 | $7,521.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET | $35.06 | 224 | $7,852.88 | $7,882.27 |
+$331.52 (+4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $36.10 | 218 | $7,870.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $36.94 | 218 | $8,052.38 | $8,064.30 |
+$182.03 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 10:05am ET | $38.49 | 209 | $8,044.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $42.38 | 209 | $8,857.42 | $8,877.45 |
+$813.16 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 1:00pm ET | $41.35 | 214 | $8,849.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.92 | 214 | $9,612.35 | $9,640.36 |
+$762.91 (+8.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $45.64 | 211 | $9,628.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $41.66 | 211 | $8,790.26 | $8,801.64 |
$-838.73 (-8.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.80 | 200 | $8,759.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.66 | 200 | $8,931.08 | $8,973.70 |
+$172.06 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.64 | 196 | $8,945.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.50 | 196 | $9,897.02 | $9,925.61 |
+$951.91 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.85 | 195 | $9,914.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $54.31 | 195 | $10,589.49 | $10,600.33 |
+$674.72 (+6.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $54.70 | 193 | $10,557.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 12:50pm ET | $50.28 | 193 | $9,704.04 | $9,746.40 |
$-853.93 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.82 | 181 | $9,740.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:30pm ET | $59.22 | 181 | $10,717.92 | $10,723.80 |
+$977.40 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 12:30pm ET | $60.14 | 178 | $10,704.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.07 | 178 | $9,801.57 | $9,821.34 |
$-902.46 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.19 | 188 | $9,811.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET | $47.78 | 188 | $8,981.70 | $8,991.32 |
$-830.02 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $56.67 | 158 | $8,953.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $51.99 | 158 | $8,214.42 | $8,251.88 |
$-739.44 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.51 | 157 | $8,244.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.99 | 157 | $8,476.43 | $8,484.24 |
+$232.36 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $56.17 | 151 | $8,481.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $51.59 | 151 | $7,790.09 | $7,792.68 |
$-691.56 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.72 | 137 | $7,770.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $52.12 | 137 | $7,139.85 | $7,162.23 |
$-630.45 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $49.69 | 144 | $7,156.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $47.13 | 144 | $6,787.28 | $6,793.43 |
$-368.80 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.35 | 149 | $6,756.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $42.97 | 149 | $6,402.53 | $6,439.56 |
$-353.88 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $39.98 | 161 | $6,436.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $44.13 | 161 | $7,104.13 | $7,106.91 |
+$667.35 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 145 | $7,068.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.65 | 145 | $7,779.97 | $7,818.13 |
+$711.22 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $74.50 | 104 | $7,747.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $82.02 | 104 | $8,530.08 | $8,600.73 |
+$782.60 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:00am ET | $77.95 | 110 | $8,574.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.54 | 110 | $8,089.40 | $8,115.93 |
$-484.80 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $74.38 | 109 | $8,106.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.88 | 109 | $9,033.92 | $9,042.97 |
+$927.04 (+11.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $82.34 | 109 | $8,975.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.96 | 109 | $8,170.64 | $8,238.55 |
$-804.42 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.02 | 105 | $8,192.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $72.17 | 105 | $7,577.85 | $7,624.30 |
$-614.25 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $75.45 | 101 | $7,620.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $71.54 | 101 | $7,225.54 | $7,229.39 |
$-394.91 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $76.10 | 94 | $7,153.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:35pm ET | $72.28 | 94 | $6,793.85 | $6,869.61 |
$-359.78 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $63.30 | 108 | $6,836.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.34 | 108 | $7,596.94 | $7,630.15 |
+$760.54 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $71.13 | 107 | $7,610.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $78.29 | 107 | $8,377.02 | $8,396.27 |
+$766.12 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,396.27
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,603.73
Total Return:
-16.04%