COIN Monday Masher's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 45 trades in period
-26.62%
Last Year Return
$5,399.80
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$7,358.77
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
3.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
0
-8.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,358.77
Current Value
$5,399.80
Period P&L
$-1,958.96
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.72
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
16 /
29
Best Trade
+12.10%
Worst Trade
-8.74%
Avg Trade Return
-0.59%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$502,210.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,958.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,958.96
Gross Return
-26.62%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.62%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $7,358.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 2:20pm ET | $381.12 | 19 | $7,358.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $375.66 | 19 | $7,253.35 | $7,253.35 |
$-105.42 (-1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:25am ET | $353.22 | 21 | $7,253.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $341.41 | 21 | $7,010.83 | $7,010.83 |
$-242.52 (-3.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 12:00pm ET | $349.64 | 20 | $7,010.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $338.71 | 20 | $6,791.67 | $6,791.67 |
$-219.16 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 3:00pm ET | $366.61 | 19 | $6,791.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $355.20 | 19 | $6,580.38 | $6,580.38 |
$-211.29 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $333.99 | 20 | $6,580.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $307.39 | 20 | $6,056.39 | $6,056.39 |
$-523.99 (-8.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $316.32 | 19 | $6,056.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $303.96 | 19 | $5,819.74 | $5,819.74 |
$-236.65 (-3.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $271.84 | 21 | $5,819.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $261.67 | 21 | $5,602.12 | $5,602.12 |
$-217.62 (-3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $259.29 | 22 | $5,602.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $263.21 | 22 | $5,686.92 | $5,686.92 |
+$84.80 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:30am ET | $272.55 | 21 | $5,686.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $277.37 | 21 | $5,787.60 | $5,787.60 |
+$100.68 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $263.46 | 22 | $5,787.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $252.62 | 22 | $5,549.58 | $5,549.58 |
$-238.02 (-4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET | $248.50 | 22 | $5,549.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $242.39 | 22 | $5,413.13 | $5,413.13 |
$-136.45 (-2.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $235.25 | 23 | $5,413.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $231.60 | 23 | $5,329.26 | $5,329.26 |
$-83.87 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $255.30 | 21 | $5,329.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $250.54 | 21 | $5,230.00 | $5,230.00 |
$-99.26 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $243.78 | 21 | $5,230.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $252.67 | 21 | $5,420.62 | $5,420.62 |
+$190.62 (+3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.95 | 25 | $5,420.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $210.89 | 25 | $5,318.21 | $5,318.21 |
$-102.41 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.19 | 28 | $5,318.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $179.74 | 28 | $5,052.57 | $5,052.57 |
$-265.64 (-5.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.67 | 32 | $5,052.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $162.56 | 32 | $5,144.02 | $5,144.02 |
+$91.45 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.64 | 31 | $5,144.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $162.03 | 31 | $5,062.47 | $5,062.47 |
$-81.55 (-1.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $182.63 | 28 | $5,062.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $182.22 | 28 | $5,051.24 | $5,051.24 |
$-11.23 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $193.35 | 26 | $5,051.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $197.05 | 26 | $5,147.90 | $5,147.90 |
+$96.66 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:55am ET | $201.96 | 25 | $5,147.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $211.23 | 25 | $5,384.21 | $5,384.21 |
+$236.31 (+4.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $198.86 | 27 | $5,384.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.47 | 27 | $4,913.37 | $4,913.37 |
$-470.84 (-8.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $160.52 | 31 | $4,913.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET | $174.87 | 31 | $5,352.46 | $5,352.46 |
+$439.09 (+8.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $174.71 | 31 | $5,352.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $174.65 | 31 | $5,350.62 | $5,350.62 |
$-1.84 (-0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.85 | 32 | $5,350.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $184.29 | 32 | $5,981.41 | $5,981.41 |
+$630.79 (+11.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.56 | 30 | $5,981.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.68 | 30 | $5,835.84 | $5,835.84 |
$-145.57 (-2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.22 | 29 | $5,835.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $194.41 | 29 | $5,694.97 | $5,694.97 |
$-140.87 (-2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $203.50 | 28 | $5,694.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $197.55 | 28 | $5,528.46 | $5,528.46 |
$-166.51 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $213.60 | 26 | $5,528.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $207.49 | 26 | $5,370.19 | $5,370.19 |
$-158.27 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.26 | 28 | $5,370.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $193.15 | 28 | $5,451.70 | $5,451.70 |
+$81.51 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.21 | 31 | $5,451.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $173.98 | 31 | $5,352.42 | $5,352.42 |
$-99.28 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $162.28 | 33 | $5,352.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $155.56 | 33 | $5,130.88 | $5,130.88 |
$-221.54 (-4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $171.78 | 30 | $5,130.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $169.81 | 30 | $5,072.04 | $5,072.04 |
$-58.84 (-1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $169.28 | 30 | $5,072.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $158.38 | 30 | $4,745.45 | $4,745.45 |
$-326.59 (-6.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $145.82 | 33 | $4,745.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $146.18 | 33 | $4,757.00 | $4,757.00 |
+$11.55 (+0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.54 | 29 | $4,757.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $163.98 | 29 | $4,828.85 | $4,828.85 |
+$71.85 (+1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $156.80 | 31 | $4,828.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $161.54 | 31 | $4,974.67 | $4,974.67 |
+$145.82 (+3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $156.93 | 32 | $4,974.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $175.92 | 32 | $5,576.82 | $5,576.82 |
+$602.16 (+12.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $161.86 | 34 | $5,576.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $167.90 | 34 | $5,784.93 | $5,784.93 |
+$208.11 (+3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.02 | 40 | $5,784.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $151.73 | 40 | $6,094.73 | $6,094.73 |
+$309.80 (+5.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $151.14 | 40 | $6,094.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $147.94 | 40 | $5,965.69 | $5,965.69 |
$-129.04 (-2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $149.00 | 40 | $5,965.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $146.71 | 40 | $5,874.00 | $5,874.00 |
$-91.69 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 11:10am ET | $186.42 | 32 | $5,874.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $187.19 | 32 | $5,898.26 | $5,898.26 |
+$24.26 (+0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $185.28 | 32 | $5,898.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $172.74 | 32 | $5,498.90 | $5,498.90 |
$-399.36 (-6.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $204.75 | 27 | $5,498.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $201.06 | 27 | $5,399.80 | $5,399.80 |
$-99.10 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,399.80
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,600.20
Total Return:
-46.00%