Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-25 11:04:57

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
45.7 neutral
20d Trend
+4.0%
5d Trend
-8.3%
EMA20 Dist
-2.4%
ATR%
4.3%
Range Pos
42%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 25, 2026

63
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
6.3/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 72.5/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 63.0

30-Day Momentum

0
-2.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-63 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
33,677
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-25 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$16,524.37
Current Value
$16,790.16
Period P&L
$265.79
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
19
Winners / Losers
11 / 8
Best Trade
+6.41%
Worst Trade
-5.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$627,001.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$265.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$265.79
Gross Return
+1.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 META Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 19 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $16,524.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET $765.75 22 $16,524.37
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $747.48 22 $16,130.12 $16,130.12 $-394.25
(-2.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET $696.80 23 $16,130.12
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $717.83 23 $16,616.94 $16,616.94 +$486.82
(+3.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 10:55am ET $708.79 23 $16,616.94
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $717.78 23 $16,827.70 $16,827.70 +$210.76
(+1.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 11:05am ET $649.87 26 $16,827.70
🔴 SELL Nov 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $636.00 26 $16,468.55 $16,468.55 $-359.15
(-2.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $604.15 27 $16,468.55
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $590.34 27 $16,092.10 $16,092.10 $-376.45
(-2.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET $639.18 25 $16,092.10
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $639.74 25 $16,106.20 $16,106.20 +$14.10
(+0.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET $660.75 24 $16,106.20
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 1:00pm ET $667.55 24 $16,271.95 $16,271.95 +$165.75
(+1.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:35am ET $708.84 23 $16,271.95
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $668.99 23 $15,357.16 $15,357.16 $-914.79
(-5.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET $648.47 24 $15,357.16
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $652.38 24 $15,449.88 $15,449.88 +$92.72
(+0.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $635.26 24 $15,449.88
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $655.40 24 $15,939.82 $15,939.82 +$489.94
(+3.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $601.38 27 $15,939.82
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $594.88 27 $15,767.53 $15,767.53 $-172.29
(-1.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $574.83 27 $15,767.53
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $611.70 27 $16,778.73 $16,778.73 +$1,011.20
(+6.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $674.00 25 $16,778.73
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $675.11 25 $16,806.36 $16,806.36 +$27.63
(+0.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:55am ET $605.03 28 $16,806.36
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $612.53 28 $17,014.69 $17,014.69 +$208.33
(+1.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $601.94 28 $17,014.69
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $616.50 28 $17,426.25 $17,426.25 +$411.56
(+2.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $609.00 29 $17,426.25
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $604.55 29 $17,298.91 $17,298.91 $-127.34
(-0.7%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET $620.99 28 $17,298.91
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $623.11 28 $17,357.97 $17,357.97 +$59.06
(+0.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $580.11 30 $17,357.97
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $572.59 30 $17,132.81 $17,132.81 $-225.16
(-1.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:20am ET $569.01 30 $17,132.81
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $557.63 30 $16,790.16 $16,790.16 $-342.65
(-2.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,790.16
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,790.16
Total Return: +67.90%
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