Compendium › Monday Masher › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 10 trades in period

+4.01%
Last Year Return
$20,963.16
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$20,155.44
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:53:44

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

59
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
5.9/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 70.7/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 59.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,100
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$20,155.44
Current Value
$20,963.16
Period P&L
$807.72
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.70

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+8.58%
Worst Trade
-8.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$386,509.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$807.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$807.72
Gross Return
+4.01%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $20,155.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $186.83 108 $20,155.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $180.91 108 $19,516.78 $19,516.78 $-638.66
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET $176.86 110 $19,516.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $176.98 110 $19,530.02 $19,530.02 +$13.24
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $186.64 105 $19,530.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $188.81 105 $19,757.08 $19,757.08 +$227.06
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $186.93 106 $19,757.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $171.82 106 $18,159.58 $18,159.58 $-1,597.50
(-8.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $174.89 104 $18,159.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.90 104 $18,991.29 $18,991.29 +$831.71
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:35am ET $221.15 86 $18,991.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.23 86 $18,825.98 $18,825.98 $-165.31
(-0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $190.99 99 $18,825.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $194.48 99 $19,169.49 $19,169.49 +$343.51
(+1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:10am ET $201.14 95 $19,169.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $194.90 95 $18,575.30 $18,575.30 $-594.19
(-3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $209.91 88 $18,575.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $227.93 88 $20,169.92 $20,169.92 +$1,594.62
(+8.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 96 $20,169.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.51 96 $20,963.16 $20,963.16 +$793.24
(+3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,963.16
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,963.16
Total Return: +109.63%
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