Compendium › Monday Masher › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 8 trades in period

-4.34%
Last Year Return
$17,018.76
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$17,791.70
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:42:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

51
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 66.2/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 50.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,082
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$17,791.70
Current Value
$17,018.76
Period P&L
$-772.95
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+6.72%
Worst Trade
-10.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$291,844.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-772.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$-772.95
Gross Return
-4.34%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $17,791.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.47 375 $17,791.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $50.34 375 $18,866.97 $18,866.97 +$1,075.27
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $46.31 407 $18,866.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.42 407 $20,133.96 $20,133.96 +$1,266.99
(+6.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $44.55 452 $20,133.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.44 452 $20,086.51 $20,086.51 $-47.45
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $81.95 245 $20,086.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.96 245 $17,881.77 $17,881.77 $-2,204.74
(-11.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $74.05 241 $17,881.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $74.40 241 $17,966.26 $17,966.26 +$84.49
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $62.39 288 $17,966.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.70 288 $16,615.70 $16,615.70 $-1,350.57
(-7.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $68.88 241 $16,615.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $70.33 241 $16,966.06 $16,966.06 +$350.36
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $67.60 251 $16,966.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $67.81 251 $17,018.76 $17,018.76 +$52.70
(+0.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,018.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,018.76
Total Return: +70.19%
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