Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:54:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

62
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
11.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 75.3/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 61.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,774
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$14,845.97
Current Value
$17,115.04
Period P&L
$2,269.07
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-12.59

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
9 / 6
Best Trade
+7.15%
Worst Trade
-4.55%
Avg Trade Return
+1.01%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$473,384.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,269.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,269.07
Gross Return
+15.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $14,845.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $143.25 104 $14,845.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $140.50 104 $14,560.96 $14,560.96 $-285.01
(-1.9%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:30am ET $142.59 102 $14,560.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $139.38 102 $14,233.16 $14,233.16 $-327.80
(-2.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $136.68 104 $14,233.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $139.96 104 $14,574.19 $14,574.19 +$341.03
(+2.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $136.07 107 $14,574.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $140.46 107 $15,043.86 $15,043.86 +$469.67
(+3.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $136.82 110 $15,043.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $136.79 110 $15,040.01 $15,040.01 $-3.85
(-0.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $129.30 116 $15,040.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $134.84 116 $15,684.67 $15,684.67 +$644.66
(+4.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $161.34 97 $15,684.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $169.83 97 $16,510.03 $16,510.03 +$825.36
(+5.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:45am ET $175.07 94 $16,510.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $176.95 94 $16,687.32 $16,687.32 +$177.29
(+1.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $191.41 87 $16,687.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.70 87 $15,927.97 $15,927.97 $-759.35
(-4.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $179.12 89 $15,927.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $185.65 89 $16,508.64 $16,508.64 +$580.67
(+3.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $182.98 90 $16,508.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.63 90 $16,387.29 $16,387.29 $-121.35
(-0.7%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $173.82 94 $16,387.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $166.53 94 $15,700.01 $15,700.01 $-687.28
(-4.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:45am ET $174.15 90 $15,700.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $186.60 90 $16,822.41 $16,822.41 +$1,122.40
(+7.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $180.45 93 $16,822.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.69 93 $17,031.23 $17,031.23 +$208.82
(+1.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $182.89 93 $17,031.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.79 93 $17,115.04 $17,115.04 +$83.81
(+0.5%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,115.04
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,115.04
Total Return: +71.15%
Back to Monday Masher