Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:48

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

72
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.5/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 73.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 71.8

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-66 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$40,652.90
Current Value
$49,179.57
Period P&L
$8,526.67
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.39

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
7 / 3
Best Trade
+8.25%
Worst Trade
-8.05%
Avg Trade Return
+2.06%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$939,506.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$8,526.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$8,526.67
Gross Return
+20.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $40,652.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:55am ET $100.36 405 $40,652.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $108.64 405 $44,005.79 $44,005.79 +$3,352.89
(+8.2%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $116.74 377 $44,005.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $113.20 377 $42,671.41 $42,671.41 $-1,334.38
(-3.0%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $110.53 386 $42,671.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $115.56 386 $44,613.30 $44,613.30 +$1,941.89
(+4.6%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $99.15 450 $44,613.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $104.49 450 $47,016.07 $47,016.07 +$2,402.77
(+5.4%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $94.19 499 $47,016.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $89.42 499 $44,632.70 $44,632.70 $-2,383.37
(-5.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $86.52 516 $44,632.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $93.25 516 $48,103.75 $48,103.75 +$3,471.05
(+7.8%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $92.57 520 $48,103.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $94.69 520 $49,205.40 $49,205.40 +$1,101.65
(+2.3%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $104.74 470 $49,205.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $108.77 470 $51,101.13 $51,101.13 +$1,895.73
(+3.9%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $102.25 500 $51,101.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $107.02 500 $53,487.63 $53,487.63 +$2,386.50
(+4.7%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:30am ET $113.79 470 $53,487.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $104.63 470 $49,179.57 $49,179.57 $-4,308.06
(-8.1%)
TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $49,179.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$39,179.57
Total Return: +391.80%
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