Compendium › Monday Masher › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 9 trades in period

+27.05%
Last 3 Months Return
$18,230.68
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$14,349.19
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 15:40:46

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

64
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality 69.6/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 64.0

30-Day Momentum

13
+2.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.2 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-51 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,349.19
Current Value
$18,230.68
Period P&L
$3,881.49
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.94

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
6 / 3
Best Trade
+6.40%
Worst Trade
-1.82%
Avg Trade Return
+2.74%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$296,723.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,881.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,881.49
Gross Return
+27.05%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $14,349.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $915.65 16 $14,349.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $899.01 16 $14,088.42 $14,088.42 $-260.77
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $886.85 16 $14,088.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $936.04 16 $14,869.85 $14,869.85 +$781.43
(+5.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 16 $14,869.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 16 $15,328.70 $15,328.70 +$458.85
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $879.24 17 $15,328.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $935.50 17 $16,309.54 $16,309.54 +$980.84
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 11:55am ET $978.26 17 $16,309.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,007.57 17 $16,798.03 $16,798.03 +$488.49
(+3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:10am ET $986.07 17 $16,798.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,046.13 17 $17,821.17 $17,821.17 +$1,023.14
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET $1,087.44 16 $17,821.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,125.38 16 $18,442.85 $18,442.85 +$621.68
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:15am ET $1,165.20 16 $18,442.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,163.33 16 $18,413.35 $18,413.35 $-29.50
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,113.34 17 $18,413.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,102.30 17 $18,230.68 $18,230.68 $-182.67
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,230.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,230.68
Total Return: +82.31%
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