Compendium › Monday Masher › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 8 trades in period

+6.60%
Last 3 Months Return
$19,434.05
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$18,230.68
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:39:11

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality 69.6/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 61.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$18,230.68
Current Value
$19,434.05
Period P&L
$1,203.37
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+4.80%
Worst Trade
-4.82%
Avg Trade Return
+0.84%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$298,162.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,203.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,203.37
Gross Return
+6.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $18,230.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET $1,220.65 15 $18,230.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $1,202.36 15 $17,957.51 $17,957.51 $-273.17
(-1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:45am ET $1,184.53 15 $17,957.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,215.01 15 $18,419.59 $18,419.59 +$462.08
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $1,174.39 16 $18,419.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,169.70 16 $18,346.03 $18,346.03 $-73.56
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:35am ET $1,165.81 16 $18,346.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,185.07 16 $18,649.12 $18,649.12 +$303.09
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $1,131.99 16 $18,649.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,186.33 16 $19,544.35 $19,544.35 +$895.23
(+4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.73 16 $19,544.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,176.20 16 $18,602.75 $18,602.75 $-941.60
(-4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:40am ET $1,151.61 16 $18,602.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,159.46 16 $18,729.56 $18,729.56 +$126.81
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.00 16 $18,729.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,187.03 16 $19,434.05 $19,434.05 +$704.49
(+3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,434.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,434.05
Total Return: +94.34%
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