Compendium › Monday Masher › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 7 trades in period

+0.15%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,517.53
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$15,493.55
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:52

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

57
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
9.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 71.8/100
× Confidence 0.80 = 57.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,493.55
Current Value
$15,517.53
Period P&L
$23.98
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+2.59%
Worst Trade
-2.17%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$221,339.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$23.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$23.98
Gross Return
+0.15%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.15%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $15,493.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET $374.51 41 $15,493.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $384.22 41 $15,895.47 $15,895.47 +$401.92
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $386.11 41 $15,895.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $383.14 41 $15,772.79 $15,772.79 $-122.68
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $390.86 40 $15,772.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $390.28 40 $15,749.39 $15,749.39 $-23.40
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:45pm ET $389.60 40 $15,749.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $392.40 40 $15,862.78 $15,862.78 +$113.39
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:50am ET $483.97 33 $15,862.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $488.86 33 $16,022.95 $16,022.95 +$160.17
(+1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $489.20 33 $16,022.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $484.26 33 $15,860.97 $15,860.97 $-161.98
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:00am ET $507.81 31 $15,860.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $496.81 31 $15,517.53 $15,517.53 $-343.44
(-2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,517.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,517.53
Total Return: +55.18%
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