Compendium › Monday Masher › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 8 trades in period

+13.55%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,243.61
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$14,304.95
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:07

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

66
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
10.4/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 82.0/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 66.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,290
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,304.95
Current Value
$16,243.61
Period P&L
$1,938.66
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.37

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
6 / 2
Best Trade
+3.70%
Worst Trade
-1.74%
Avg Trade Return
+1.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$241,802.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,938.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,938.66
Gross Return
+13.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $14,304.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET $469.05 30 $14,304.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $485.49 30 $14,806.33 $14,806.33 +$501.38
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET $486.21 30 $14,806.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $477.74 30 $14,548.40 $14,548.40 $-257.93
(-1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:25am ET $473.00 31 $14,548.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $476.06 31 $14,642.52 $14,642.52 +$94.12
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:25am ET $388.43 38 $14,642.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $400.58 38 $15,100.53 $15,100.53 +$458.01
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $405.27 37 $15,100.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $404.91 37 $15,087.08 $15,087.08 $-13.45
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET $360.89 42 $15,087.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $369.23 42 $15,435.74 $15,435.74 +$348.66
(+2.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET $417.82 37 $15,435.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $433.27 37 $16,006.44 $16,006.44 +$570.70
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $417.75 38 $16,006.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $423.94 38 $16,243.61 $16,243.61 +$237.17
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,243.61
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,243.61
Total Return: +62.44%
Back to Monday Masher