Compendium › Monday Masher › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-12-21 to present • 6 trades in period

+17.24%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,687.32
Current Value
83%
Win Rate
$14,233.16
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 15:45:14

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

58
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 79.6/100
× Confidence 0.72 = 57.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,718
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,233.16
Current Value
$16,687.32
Period P&L
$2,454.16
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.50

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
5 / 1
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-0.03%
Avg Trade Return
+2.70%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$184,626.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,454.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,454.16
Gross Return
+17.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $14,233.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $136.68 104 $14,233.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $139.96 104 $14,574.19 $14,574.19 +$341.03
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $136.07 107 $14,574.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $140.46 107 $15,043.86 $15,043.86 +$469.67
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $136.82 110 $15,043.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $136.79 110 $15,040.01 $15,040.01 $-3.85
(-0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $129.30 116 $15,040.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $134.84 116 $15,684.67 $15,684.67 +$644.66
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $161.34 97 $15,684.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $169.83 97 $16,510.03 $16,510.03 +$825.36
(+5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:45am ET $175.07 94 $16,510.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $176.95 94 $16,687.32 $16,687.32 +$177.29
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,687.32
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,687.32
Total Return: +66.87%
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