TSLA Monday Masher's Analysis
to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 49 trades executed
+47.43%
2 Years Return
$16,401.03
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$11,124.30
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
47
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
1.8/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
60.2/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 47.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,765
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,124.30
Current Value
$16,401.03
Total P&L
$5,276.73
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
17 /
22
Best Trade
+21.22%
Worst Trade
-10.78%
Avg Trade Return
+1.24%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,149,708.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,276.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,276.73
Gross Return
+47.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+47.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $11,124.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2024 9:30am ET | $215.94 | 52 | $11,124.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2024 3:55pm ET | $213.56 | 52 | $11,001.48 | $11,001.48 |
$-122.82 (-1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET | $241.68 | 46 | $11,001.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 3:55pm ET | $288.47 | 46 | $13,131.54 | $13,131.54 |
+$2,130.06 (+19.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 12:15pm ET | $345.91 | 38 | $13,131.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 3:55pm ET | $330.19 | 38 | $12,534.80 | $12,534.80 |
$-596.74 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2024 10:35am ET | $349.83 | 36 | $12,534.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 27, 2024 3:55pm ET | $332.79 | 36 | $11,924.24 | $11,924.24 |
$-610.56 (-4.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 10:30am ET | $385.66 | 31 | $11,924.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2024 3:55pm ET | $424.80 | 31 | $13,134.27 | $13,134.27 |
+$1,210.03 (+10.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2024 9:35am ET | $425.44 | 31 | $13,134.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2024 3:55pm ET | $453.96 | 31 | $14,014.75 | $14,014.75 |
+$880.48 (+6.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 9:55am ET | $418.12 | 34 | $14,014.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $379.03 | 34 | $12,704.47 | $12,704.47 |
$-1,310.28 (-9.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $385.76 | 33 | $12,704.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $428.18 | 33 | $14,101.51 | $14,101.51 |
+$1,397.04 (+11.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $398.95 | 35 | $14,101.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2025 3:55pm ET | $388.03 | 35 | $13,715.53 | $13,715.53 |
$-385.98 (-2.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $385.55 | 36 | $13,715.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $378.17 | 36 | $13,452.99 | $13,452.99 |
$-262.54 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $352.26 | 38 | $13,452.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2025 3:55pm ET | $336.46 | 38 | $12,849.58 | $12,849.58 |
$-603.41 (-4.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $326.04 | 39 | $12,849.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $290.89 | 39 | $11,464.28 | $11,464.28 |
$-1,385.30 (-10.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 12:45pm ET | $293.01 | 39 | $11,464.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $279.26 | 39 | $10,926.30 | $10,926.30 |
$-537.98 (-4.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $247.73 | 44 | $10,926.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET | $248.28 | 44 | $10,950.56 | $10,950.56 |
+$24.26 (+0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $239.64 | 46 | $10,950.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 3:55pm ET | $235.73 | 46 | $10,771.89 | $10,771.89 |
$-178.67 (-1.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $244.62 | 44 | $10,771.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $282.67 | 44 | $12,447.68 | $12,447.68 |
+$1,675.79 (+15.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $224.39 | 55 | $12,447.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $272.00 | 55 | $15,088.77 | $15,088.77 |
+$2,641.09 (+21.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $248.94 | 61 | $15,088.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $241.55 | 61 | $14,641.14 | $14,641.14 |
$-447.63 (-3.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $231.67 | 63 | $14,641.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $250.79 | 63 | $15,849.49 | $15,849.49 |
+$1,208.35 (+8.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 10:45am ET | $284.22 | 56 | $15,849.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $282.12 | 56 | $15,732.50 | $15,732.50 |
$-116.99 (-0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $281.29 | 56 | $15,732.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $276.17 | 56 | $15,446.41 | $15,446.41 |
$-286.09 (-1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $334.38 | 46 | $15,446.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $334.54 | 46 | $15,453.93 | $15,453.93 |
+$7.52 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET | $342.68 | 45 | $15,453.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 3:55pm ET | $332.21 | 45 | $14,981.76 | $14,981.76 |
$-472.17 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $284.88 | 53 | $14,981.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $326.49 | 53 | $17,170.30 | $17,170.30 |
+$2,188.54 (+14.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 12:30pm ET | $344.95 | 50 | $17,170.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 3:55pm ET | $327.59 | 50 | $16,306.19 | $16,306.19 |
$-864.11 (-5.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $290.80 | 56 | $16,306.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $295.82 | 56 | $16,587.68 | $16,587.68 |
+$281.49 (+1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2025 2:25pm ET | $406.68 | 41 | $16,587.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $425.59 | 41 | $17,359.01 | $17,359.01 |
+$771.33 (+4.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 1:05pm ET | $412.52 | 42 | $17,359.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET | $404.09 | 42 | $17,004.27 | $17,004.27 |
$-354.74 (-2.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:25am ET | $443.49 | 38 | $17,004.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $451.44 | 38 | $17,309.01 | $17,309.01 |
+$304.74 (+1.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $463.85 | 37 | $17,309.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $449.55 | 37 | $16,775.44 | $16,775.44 |
$-533.57 (-3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 40 | $16,775.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.90 | 40 | $16,393.37 | $16,393.37 |
$-382.07 (-2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.44 | 42 | $16,393.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $407.21 | 42 | $17,097.49 | $17,097.49 |
+$704.12 (+4.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $392.92 | 44 | $17,097.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $387.13 | 44 | $16,845.54 | $16,845.54 |
$-251.95 (-1.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $366.52 | 46 | $16,845.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $373.40 | 46 | $17,161.98 | $17,161.98 |
+$316.44 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $411.65 | 42 | $17,161.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $416.45 | 42 | $17,361.68 | $17,361.68 |
+$199.70 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $423.70 | 41 | $17,361.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $423.73 | 41 | $17,362.91 | $17,362.91 |
+$1.23 (+0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $396.41 | 44 | $17,362.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $394.19 | 44 | $17,265.67 | $17,265.67 |
$-97.24 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $307.15 | 56 | $17,265.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $298.35 | 56 | $16,771.00 | $16,771.00 |
$-494.67 (-2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $353.58 | 47 | $16,771.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $345.78 | 47 | $16,401.03 | $16,401.03 |
$-369.97 (-2.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,401.03
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,401.03
Total Return:
+64.01%