Compendium › Monday Masher › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Monday Masher's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 7 trades in period

-3.02%
Year to Date Return
$12,454.32
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$12,841.63
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:54:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.2/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
6.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 46.7/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 35.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,122
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,841.63
Current Value
$12,454.32
Period P&L
$-387.31
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+2.21%
Worst Trade
-3.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.42%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$178,016.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-387.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-387.31
Gross Return
-3.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $12,841.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $594.71 22 $12,841.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $607.87 22 $13,125.79 $13,125.79 +$284.16
(+2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $588.20 22 $13,125.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $587.96 22 $13,120.43 $13,120.43 $-5.36
(-0.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $736.18 18 $13,120.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $709.56 18 $12,645.91 $12,645.91 $-474.52
(-3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $716.23 18 $12,645.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $717.69 18 $12,671.69 $12,671.69 +$25.78
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $678.63 19 $12,671.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $661.63 19 $12,354.26 $12,354.26 $-317.43
(-2.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $705.89 18 $12,354.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $710.90 18 $12,442.03 $12,442.03 +$87.77
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $703.57 18 $12,442.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $704.26 18 $12,454.32 $12,454.32 +$12.29
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,454.32
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,454.32
Total Return: +24.54%
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