MU Monday Masher's Analysis
to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 66 trades executed
+82.64%
2 Years Return
$14,610.99
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$7,999.83
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
28.4/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality
53.3/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 48.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,744
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
2 days with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-11-29 (no data), 2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$7,999.83
Current Value
$14,610.99
Total P&L
$6,611.16
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
49
Winners / Losers
28 /
21
Best Trade
+13.16%
Worst Trade
-17.05%
Avg Trade Return
+1.52%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$793,048.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,611.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,611.16
Gross Return
+82.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+82.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $7,999.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $105.58 | 76 | $7,999.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2024 3:55pm ET | $101.84 | 76 | $7,716.45 | $7,716.45 |
$-283.38 (-3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2024 2:45pm ET | $102.71 | 75 | $7,716.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2024 3:55pm ET | $105.68 | 75 | $7,939.59 | $7,939.59 |
+$223.14 (+2.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2024 11:00am ET | $108.64 | 73 | $7,939.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2024 3:55pm ET | $106.84 | 73 | $7,808.05 | $7,808.05 |
$-131.54 (-1.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $107.37 | 73 | $7,808.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 2:55pm ET | $98.50 | 73 | $7,163.02 | $7,163.02 |
$-645.03 (-8.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $86.28 | 83 | $7,163.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2025 2:55pm ET | $89.95 | 83 | $7,468.14 | $7,468.14 |
+$305.12 (+4.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2025 2:20pm ET | $99.56 | 75 | $7,468.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $99.37 | 75 | $7,454.26 | $7,454.26 |
$-13.88 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.64 | 78 | $7,454.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $92.58 | 78 | $7,216.14 | $7,216.14 |
$-238.12 (-3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.16 | 82 | $7,216.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET | $94.52 | 82 | $7,737.16 | $7,737.16 |
+$521.02 (+7.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $97.50 | 79 | $7,737.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET | $91.75 | 79 | $7,281.24 | $7,281.24 |
$-455.92 (-5.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 1:05pm ET | $92.53 | 79 | $7,281.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 3:55pm ET | $89.27 | 79 | $7,025.09 | $7,025.09 |
$-256.15 (-3.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.52 | 78 | $7,025.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET | $94.90 | 78 | $7,447.29 | $7,447.29 |
+$422.20 (+6.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2025 10:55am ET | $96.26 | 77 | $7,447.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2025 3:55pm ET | $91.12 | 77 | $7,049.63 | $7,049.63 |
$-397.66 (-5.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.88 | 83 | $7,049.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $74.34 | 83 | $6,174.24 | $6,174.24 |
$-875.39 (-12.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $63.03 | 98 | $6,174.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $70.05 | 98 | $6,861.90 | $6,861.90 |
+$687.66 (+11.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $72.10 | 95 | $6,861.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2025 12:15pm ET | $68.03 | 95 | $6,474.55 | $6,474.55 |
$-387.35 (-5.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $77.21 | 84 | $6,474.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $77.28 | 84 | $6,480.42 | $6,480.42 |
+$5.87 (+0.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2025 10:20am ET | $122.74 | 53 | $6,480.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $122.29 | 53 | $6,456.66 | $6,456.66 |
$-23.76 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.50 | 55 | $6,456.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $113.25 | 55 | $6,223.12 | $6,223.12 |
$-233.54 (-3.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2025 11:35am ET | $121.85 | 51 | $6,223.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2025 3:55pm ET | $125.26 | 51 | $6,397.54 | $6,397.54 |
+$174.42 (+2.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $191.57 | 33 | $6,397.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $179.70 | 33 | $6,001.29 | $6,001.29 |
$-396.25 (-6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $242.44 | 25 | $6,001.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 2:55pm ET | $201.10 | 25 | $4,977.97 | $4,977.97 |
$-1,023.32 (-17.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:30am ET | $242.83 | 20 | $4,977.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $248.54 | 20 | $5,094.92 | $5,094.92 |
+$116.95 (+2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:45am ET | $269.54 | 19 | $5,094.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $284.79 | 19 | $5,383.28 | $5,383.28 |
+$288.36 (+5.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.13 | 14 | $5,383.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $435.79 | 14 | $6,028.86 | $6,028.86 |
+$645.58 (+12.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.10 | 16 | $6,028.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $413.88 | 16 | $6,705.79 | $6,705.79 |
+$676.93 (+11.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $419.30 | 16 | $6,705.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $414.09 | 16 | $6,622.55 | $6,622.55 |
$-83.24 (-1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $402.79 | 16 | $6,622.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $397.02 | 16 | $6,527.68 | $6,527.68 |
$-94.87 (-1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.41 | 18 | $6,527.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.32 | 18 | $7,260.50 | $7,260.50 |
+$732.82 (+11.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $439.55 | 17 | $7,260.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $444.24 | 17 | $7,337.97 | $7,337.97 |
+$77.47 (+1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $419.13 | 18 | $7,337.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $355.92 | 18 | $6,231.31 | $6,231.31 |
$-1,106.66 (-15.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $345.18 | 18 | $6,231.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $366.37 | 18 | $6,613.75 | $6,613.75 |
+$382.44 (+6.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $376.27 | 18 | $6,613.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $421.60 | 18 | $7,410.52 | $7,410.52 |
+$796.77 (+12.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $415.50 | 18 | $7,410.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $455.74 | 18 | $8,128.21 | $8,128.21 |
+$717.69 (+9.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $447.05 | 18 | $8,128.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $478.98 | 18 | $8,708.65 | $8,708.65 |
+$580.44 (+7.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $517.91 | 17 | $8,708.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $515.12 | 17 | $8,661.82 | $8,661.82 |
$-46.83 (-0.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $571.86 | 15 | $8,661.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $647.11 | 15 | $9,801.66 | $9,801.66 |
+$1,139.84 (+13.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $770.80 | 13 | $9,801.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $781.55 | 13 | $9,938.36 | $9,938.36 |
+$136.70 (+1.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $715.19 | 14 | $9,938.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $759.21 | 14 | $10,550.07 | $10,550.07 |
+$611.71 (+6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $939.84 | 11 | $10,550.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $991.42 | 11 | $11,129.08 | $11,129.08 |
+$579.01 (+5.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,116.98 | 10 | $11,129.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,003.49 | 10 | $9,998.32 | $9,998.32 |
$-1,130.76 (-10.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $986.00 | 10 | $9,998.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $989.00 | 10 | $10,028.77 | $10,028.77 |
+$30.45 (+0.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.62 | 11 | $10,028.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $853.66 | 11 | $9,339.91 | $9,339.91 |
$-688.86 (-6.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $879.54 | 11 | $9,339.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $990.24 | 11 | $10,515.39 | $10,515.39 |
+$1,175.48 (+12.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $892.26 | 12 | $10,515.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $873.65 | 12 | $10,296.07 | $10,296.07 |
$-219.32 (-2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $782.70 | 13 | $10,296.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $882.57 | 13 | $11,609.89 | $11,609.89 |
+$1,313.82 (+12.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $859.09 | 14 | $11,609.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $947.58 | 14 | $12,805.76 | $12,805.76 |
+$1,195.87 (+10.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $912.27 | 14 | $12,805.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $931.65 | 14 | $13,077.87 | $13,077.87 |
+$272.11 (+2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $909.68 | 14 | $13,077.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $977.88 | 14 | $14,058.34 | $14,058.34 |
+$980.47 (+7.5%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,038.77 | 14 | $14,058.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,079.60 | 14 | $14,610.99 | $14,610.99 |
+$552.65 (+3.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,610.99
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,610.99
Total Return:
+46.11%