XLK Monday Masher's Analysis
to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 31 trades executed
+56.45%
2 Years Return
$15,684.67
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$10,025.43
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
54
Lifetime
Confidence: 71%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
13.6/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality
76.5/100
× Confidence 0.71
= 54.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (71%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
56,850
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
525 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,025.43
Current Value
$15,684.67
Total P&L
$5,659.24
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.39
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
28
Winners / Losers
16 /
12
Best Trade
+16.29%
Worst Trade
-4.06%
Avg Trade Return
+1.68%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$700,755.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,659.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,659.24
Gross Return
+56.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+56.45%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 525 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Monday Masher had $10,025.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $113.18 | 89 | $10,025.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2024 3:55pm ET | $113.16 | 89 | $10,023.66 | $10,023.66 |
$-1.77 (-0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2024 9:40am ET | $112.27 | 89 | $10,023.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2024 1:00pm ET | $116.10 | 89 | $10,365.61 | $10,365.61 |
+$341.95 (+3.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2024 12:15pm ET | $116.93 | 89 | $10,365.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 3:55pm ET | $112.19 | 89 | $9,944.76 | $9,944.76 |
$-420.85 (-4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2024 11:00am ET | $108.06 | 92 | $9,944.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2024 3:55pm ET | $109.38 | 92 | $10,066.47 | $10,066.47 |
+$121.71 (+1.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $96.38 | 104 | $10,066.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2024 3:55pm ET | $98.67 | 104 | $10,305.13 | $10,305.13 |
+$238.66 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2024 10:30am ET | $110.39 | 93 | $10,305.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2024 3:55pm ET | $109.70 | 93 | $10,240.72 | $10,240.72 |
$-64.41 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2024 10:55am ET | $102.34 | 100 | $10,240.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2024 3:55pm ET | $108.69 | 100 | $10,875.89 | $10,875.89 |
+$635.17 (+6.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2024 2:55pm ET | $111.69 | 97 | $10,875.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2024 3:55pm ET | $115.23 | 97 | $11,221.10 | $11,221.10 |
+$345.21 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $116.65 | 96 | $11,221.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $116.00 | 96 | $11,159.05 | $11,159.05 |
$-62.05 (-0.6%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $112.68 | 99 | $11,159.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET | $116.14 | 99 | $11,502.21 | $11,502.21 |
+$343.16 (+3.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.07 | 100 | $11,502.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2025 3:55pm ET | $115.85 | 100 | $11,579.68 | $11,579.68 |
+$77.47 (+0.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $112.88 | 103 | $11,579.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $117.11 | 103 | $12,013.10 | $12,013.10 |
+$433.42 (+3.7%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $116.02 | 104 | $12,013.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $115.50 | 104 | $11,959.26 | $11,959.26 |
$-53.84 (-0.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2025 1:10pm ET | $110.98 | 108 | $11,959.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $110.77 | 108 | $11,936.63 | $11,936.63 |
$-22.63 (-0.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $106.66 | 112 | $11,936.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET | $105.85 | 112 | $11,845.98 | $11,845.98 |
$-90.65 (-0.8%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.71 | 118 | $11,845.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $104.73 | 118 | $12,318.85 | $12,318.85 |
+$472.87 (+4.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.64 | 141 | $12,318.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET | $101.92 | 141 | $14,326.07 | $14,326.07 |
+$2,007.22 (+16.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $100.19 | 143 | $14,326.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $96.96 | 143 | $13,864.91 | $13,864.91 |
$-461.16 (-3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.06 | 146 | $13,864.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $98.95 | 146 | $14,433.41 | $14,433.41 |
+$568.50 (+4.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 11:20am ET | $103.00 | 140 | $14,433.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 3:55pm ET | $104.91 | 140 | $14,701.77 | $14,701.77 |
+$268.36 (+1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.92 | 127 | $14,701.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $114.65 | 127 | $14,540.07 | $14,540.07 |
$-161.70 (-1.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $126.68 | 115 | $14,540.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 3:55pm ET | $129.34 | 115 | $14,845.97 | $14,845.97 |
+$305.90 (+2.1%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $143.25 | 104 | $14,845.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET | $140.50 | 104 | $14,560.96 | $14,560.96 |
$-285.01 (-1.9%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:30am ET | $142.59 | 102 | $14,560.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 3:55pm ET | $139.38 | 102 | $14,233.16 | $14,233.16 |
$-327.80 (-2.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.68 | 104 | $14,233.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $139.96 | 104 | $14,574.19 | $14,574.19 |
+$341.03 (+2.4%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.07 | 107 | $14,574.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $140.46 | 107 | $15,043.86 | $15,043.86 |
+$469.67 (+3.2%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $136.82 | 110 | $15,043.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $136.79 | 110 | $15,040.01 | $15,040.01 |
$-3.85 (-0.0%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $129.30 | 116 | $15,040.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $134.84 | 116 | $15,684.67 | $15,684.67 |
+$644.66 (+4.3%) |
TIME_EXIT
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,684.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,684.67
Total Return:
+56.85%