LLY Nina Micro's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 36 trades in period
+2.89%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,195.04
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$11,852.46
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
20.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 20.5
30-Day Momentum
19
+1.4%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.1
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,852.46
Current Value
$12,195.04
Period P&L
$342.53
Max Drawdown
-26.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
13 /
23
Best Trade
+5.44%
Worst Trade
-1.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
22.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$801,349.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$342.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$342.53
Gross Return
+2.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Nina Micro had $11,852.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,112.38 | 10 | $11,123.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,103.38 | 10 | $11,033.75 | $11,762.46 |
$-90.05 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $1,124.51 | 10 | $11,245.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.46 | 10 | $11,454.65 | $11,972.06 |
+$209.60 (+1.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $1,215.01 | 9 | $10,935.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,205.88 | 9 | $10,852.92 | $11,889.89 |
$-82.17 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,208.17 | 9 | $10,873.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,195.00 | 9 | $10,755.00 | $11,771.36 |
$-118.53 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,214.35 | 9 | $10,929.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,204.84 | 9 | $10,843.56 | $11,685.77 |
$-85.59 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,205.61 | 9 | $10,850.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,235.27 | 9 | $11,117.43 | $11,952.71 |
+$266.94 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,221.09 | 9 | $10,989.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,210.52 | 9 | $10,894.68 | $11,857.54 |
$-95.17 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,187.12 | 9 | $10,684.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,172.52 | 9 | $10,552.64 | $11,726.10 |
$-131.44 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,160.01 | 10 | $11,600.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,149.93 | 10 | $11,499.30 | $11,625.30 |
$-100.80 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,138.75 | 10 | $11,387.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,156.26 | 10 | $11,562.55 | $11,800.40 |
+$175.10 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,168.99 | 10 | $11,689.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,154.33 | 10 | $11,543.30 | $11,653.80 |
$-146.60 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,165.53 | 9 | $10,489.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,156.06 | 9 | $10,404.54 | $11,568.57 |
$-85.23 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,158.13 | 9 | $10,423.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.81 | 9 | $10,312.25 | $11,457.65 |
$-110.92 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,199.23 | 9 | $10,793.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,200.55 | 9 | $10,804.91 | $11,469.49 |
+$11.84 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,219.94 | 9 | $10,979.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,209.18 | 9 | $10,882.58 | $11,372.65 |
$-96.84 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,158.48 | 9 | $10,426.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.00 | 9 | $10,305.00 | $11,251.33 |
$-121.32 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,141.56 | 9 | $10,274.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,131.99 | 9 | $10,187.95 | $11,165.29 |
$-86.04 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,117.24 | 9 | $10,055.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 9 | $10,601.91 | $11,712.04 |
+$546.75 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,177.35 | 9 | $10,596.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,162.92 | 9 | $10,466.24 | $11,582.13 |
$-129.91 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,213.96 | 9 | $10,925.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,234.55 | 9 | $11,110.91 | $11,767.35 |
+$185.22 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,205.52 | 9 | $10,849.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,224.42 | 9 | $11,019.74 | $11,937.41 |
+$170.06 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,219.69 | 9 | $10,977.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,210.48 | 9 | $10,894.32 | $11,854.48 |
$-82.93 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,180.94 | 10 | $11,809.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,190.69 | 10 | $11,906.90 | $11,952.03 |
+$97.55 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,270.50 | 9 | $11,434.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,260.13 | 9 | $11,341.13 | $11,858.66 |
$-93.37 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,245.07 | 9 | $11,205.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,263.85 | 9 | $11,374.66 | $12,027.64 |
+$168.98 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,242.74 | 9 | $11,184.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,262.40 | 9 | $11,361.56 | $12,204.49 |
+$176.85 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,207.60 | 10 | $12,076.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,193.00 | 10 | $11,930.00 | $12,058.44 |
$-146.05 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,178.91 | 10 | $11,789.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,168.97 | 10 | $11,689.70 | $11,959.04 |
$-99.40 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,152.31 | 10 | $11,523.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,186.35 | 10 | $11,863.50 | $12,299.39 |
+$340.35 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $1,171.18 | 10 | $11,711.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,160.75 | 10 | $11,607.50 | $12,195.09 |
$-104.30 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,150.16 | 10 | $11,501.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,141.00 | 10 | $11,410.00 | $12,103.49 |
$-91.60 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,125.47 | 10 | $11,254.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,117.81 | 10 | $11,178.10 | $12,026.89 |
$-76.60 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,140.49 | 10 | $11,404.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,131.81 | 10 | $11,318.05 | $11,939.99 |
$-86.90 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,134.85 | 10 | $11,348.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,152.12 | 10 | $11,521.20 | $12,112.69 |
+$172.70 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,147.43 | 10 | $11,474.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,166.62 | 10 | $11,666.20 | $12,304.64 |
+$191.95 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $1,168.69 | 10 | $11,686.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,157.72 | 10 | $11,577.25 | $12,195.04 |
$-109.60 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,195.04
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,195.04
Total Return:
+21.95%