XLK Nina Micro's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 33 trades in period
-2.83%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,158.16
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$13,541.20
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.2/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.0
30-Day Momentum
25
+2.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.1
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,541.20
Current Value
$13,158.16
Period P&L
$-383.03
Max Drawdown
-10.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
13 /
20
Best Trade
+2.88%
Worst Trade
-2.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$863,986.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-383.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-383.03
Gross Return
-2.83%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.83%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Nina Micro had $13,541.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET | $184.15 | 73 | $13,442.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.05 | 73 | $13,216.65 | $13,314.89 |
$-226.30 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $178.80 | 74 | $13,231.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $181.78 | 74 | $13,451.72 | $13,535.41 |
+$220.52 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.55 | 72 | $13,431.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.80 | 72 | $13,305.60 | $13,409.41 |
$-126.00 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $184.49 | 72 | $13,283.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.13 | 72 | $12,969.00 | $13,095.13 |
$-314.28 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.18 | 73 | $13,007.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $180.90 | 73 | $13,205.70 | $13,293.69 |
+$198.56 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $185.77 | 71 | $13,189.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.09 | 71 | $13,070.39 | $13,174.41 |
$-119.28 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.06 | 71 | $12,997.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.59 | 71 | $12,893.19 | $13,070.34 |
$-104.07 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $183.14 | 71 | $13,002.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $181.57 | 71 | $12,891.47 | $12,958.87 |
$-111.47 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $177.97 | 72 | $12,813.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $176.58 | 72 | $12,713.76 | $12,858.79 |
$-100.08 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $177.03 | 72 | $12,746.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $175.59 | 72 | $12,642.48 | $12,755.12 |
$-103.67 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.72 | 71 | $12,689.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $176.92 | 71 | $12,561.32 | $12,627.32 |
$-127.80 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $174.42 | 72 | $12,558.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $172.89 | 72 | $12,448.08 | $12,517.16 |
$-110.16 (-0.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $168.48 | 74 | $12,467.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $171.33 | 74 | $12,678.42 | $12,728.06 |
+$210.90 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:40am ET | $168.08 | 75 | $12,606.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:40pm ET | $170.81 | 75 | $12,810.75 | $12,932.81 |
+$204.75 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $175.05 | 73 | $12,778.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $178.54 | 73 | $13,033.42 | $13,187.58 |
+$254.77 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $173.63 | 75 | $13,022.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $176.46 | 75 | $13,234.50 | $13,399.83 |
+$212.25 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $186.33 | 71 | $13,229.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.29 | 71 | $13,013.59 | $13,183.99 |
$-215.84 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $186.71 | 70 | $13,069.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:40am ET | $188.04 | 70 | $13,162.80 | $13,277.09 |
+$93.10 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $186.31 | 71 | $13,228.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.59 | 71 | $13,460.89 | $13,509.97 |
+$232.88 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $190.98 | 70 | $13,368.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $189.47 | 70 | $13,262.90 | $13,404.27 |
$-105.70 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 12:15pm ET | $191.13 | 70 | $13,379.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.53 | 70 | $13,057.10 | $13,081.92 |
$-322.35 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $183.75 | 71 | $13,046.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $182.34 | 71 | $12,946.14 | $12,981.81 |
$-100.11 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $179.12 | 72 | $12,896.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.91 | 72 | $13,097.52 | $13,182.69 |
+$200.88 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.21 | 72 | $13,047.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.42 | 72 | $13,422.24 | $13,557.81 |
+$375.12 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $187.11 | 72 | $13,471.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $185.70 | 72 | $13,370.40 | $13,456.29 |
$-101.52 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $185.59 | 72 | $13,362.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.78 | 72 | $13,232.16 | $13,325.97 |
$-130.32 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $182.94 | 72 | $13,171.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:55am ET | $185.71 | 72 | $13,371.12 | $13,525.41 |
+$199.44 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:30pm ET | $186.94 | 72 | $13,459.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.90 | 72 | $13,600.80 | $13,666.53 |
+$141.12 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.79 | 72 | $13,520.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.39 | 72 | $13,348.08 | $13,493.73 |
$-172.80 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 12:30pm ET | $187.82 | 71 | $13,335.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.89 | 71 | $12,985.19 | $13,143.70 |
$-350.03 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.57 | 71 | $13,104.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $183.13 | 71 | $13,002.23 | $13,041.11 |
$-102.59 (-0.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $187.81 | 69 | $12,958.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.64 | 69 | $13,223.16 | $13,305.38 |
+$264.27 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:05am ET | $195.09 | 68 | $13,266.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.93 | 68 | $13,118.90 | $13,158.16 |
$-147.22 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,158.16
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,158.16
Total Return:
+31.58%