Compendium › Penelope Swing › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 8 trades in period

+6.77%
Last Year Return
$11,009.89
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$10,312.01
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.6/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
11.1/15
Profit Factor
4.0/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 34.9/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 23.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,310
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,312.01
Current Value
$11,009.89
Period P&L
$697.90
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.70

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
6 / 2
Best Trade
+3.54%
Worst Trade
-0.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
2.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$172,638.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$697.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$697.90
Gross Return
+6.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,312.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $48.01 214 $10,274.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:15am ET $48.64 214 $10,408.94 $10,446.79 +$134.80
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $42.24 247 $10,434.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $43.74 247 $10,803.78 $10,816.33 +$369.54
(+3.5%) 		RESISTANCE
19.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $48.97 220 $10,773.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:10am ET $49.49 220 $10,887.80 $10,930.73 +$114.40
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:50am ET $61.05 179 $10,927.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:55am ET $61.33 179 $10,977.18 $10,979.96 +$49.23
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:05am ET $59.62 184 $10,970.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:10am ET $59.23 184 $10,898.30 $10,908.18 $-71.78
(-0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $69.88 156 $10,901.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:20am ET $69.74 156 $10,879.44 $10,886.34 $-21.84
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $141.58 76 $10,760.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:45am ET $142.51 76 $10,830.76 $10,957.02 +$70.68
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:50am ET $145.73 75 $10,929.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:55am ET $146.43 75 $10,982.25 $11,009.89 +$52.87
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,009.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,009.89
Total Return: +10.10%
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