Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.0/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 44.8/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 24.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,321
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,873.78
Current Value
$12,002.46
Period P&L
$128.68
Max Drawdown
-2.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
2 / 4
Best Trade
+9.19%
Worst Trade
-6.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$146,594.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$128.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$128.68
Gross Return
+1.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,873.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $120.53 98 $11,811.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 11:10am ET $120.00 98 $11,760.00 $11,821.84 $-51.94
(-0.4%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:20am ET $67.64 174 $11,768.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 2:05pm ET $66.15 174 $11,509.23 $11,562.58 $-259.26
(-2.2%)
RESISTANCE
3.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET $61.19 188 $11,504.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET $66.82 188 $12,562.16 $12,620.08 +$1,057.50
(+9.2%)
RESISTANCE
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $42.52 296 $12,585.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $43.10 296 $12,759.08 $12,793.24 +$173.16
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $47.15 271 $12,777.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 11:00am ET $47.13 271 $12,770.88 $12,786.46 $-6.78
(-0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $39.95 320 $12,784.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $37.50 320 $12,000.00 $12,002.46 $-784.00
(-6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,002.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,002.46
Total Return: +20.02%
Back to Penelope Swing