Compendium › Penelope Swing › RIOT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIOT
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 16 trades in period

-1.79%
Last Year Return
$10,045.95
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$10,229.42
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:14

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.4/25
Win Rate
4.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.3/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 8.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,359
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,229.42
Current Value
$10,045.95
Period P&L
$-183.47
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
7 / 9
Best Trade
+8.93%
Worst Trade
-5.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
5.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$329,233.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-183.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$-183.47
Gross Return
-1.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,229.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2025 11:50am ET $18.19 562 $10,222.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2025 1:25pm ET $18.13 562 $10,186.25 $10,192.88 $-36.53
(-0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET $21.74 468 $10,174.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:00pm ET $21.55 468 $10,085.40 $10,103.96 $-88.92
(-0.9%) 		RESISTANCE
3.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 11:00am ET $20.06 503 $10,088.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 3, 2025 12:10pm ET $20.36 503 $10,241.03 $10,256.87 +$152.91
(+1.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $16.45 623 $10,245.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 12:10pm ET $16.24 623 $10,114.41 $10,126.04 $-130.83
(-1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
2.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:35am ET $13.17 769 $10,123.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:25pm ET $13.41 769 $10,308.45 $10,310.60 +$184.56
(+1.8%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:15am ET $13.98 737 $10,303.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:50am ET $14.05 737 $10,351.17 $10,358.50 +$47.90
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $13.96 742 $10,358.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:05pm ET $14.01 742 $10,394.38 $10,394.57 +$36.06
(+0.3%) 		RESISTANCE
2.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET $14.28 727 $10,381.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 10:00am ET $14.49 727 $10,534.23 $10,547.17 +$152.60
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:35am ET $17.13 615 $10,534.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $17.08 615 $10,504.20 $10,516.42 $-30.75
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $25.61 410 $10,500.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $24.31 410 $9,967.06 $9,983.22 $-533.20
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $25.80 386 $9,958.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET $28.10 386 $10,848.53 $10,872.95 +$889.73
(+8.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $26.28 413 $10,855.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET $24.92 413 $10,291.84 $10,309.08 $-563.87
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $20.85 494 $10,299.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $20.92 494 $10,336.95 $10,346.13 +$37.05
(+0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $21.11 489 $10,325.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $20.81 489 $10,173.65 $10,194.54 $-151.59
(-1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET $20.25 503 $10,185.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET $20.17 503 $10,143.00 $10,151.79 $-42.75
(-0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET $20.14 504 $10,150.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $19.93 504 $10,044.72 $10,045.95 $-105.84
(-1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,045.95
Net Profit/Loss: +$45.95
Total Return: +0.46%
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