Compendium › Penelope Swing › SHIBUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SHIBUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 2 trades in period

-14.75%
Last Year Return
$5,169.61
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$6,063.98
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:10:07

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 8.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,133
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$6,063.98
Current Value
$5,169.61
Period P&L
$-894.34
Max Drawdown
-65.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+9.20%
Worst Trade
-21.10%
Avg Trade Return
-5.95%
Avg Hold Time
30m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$20,799.68
Estimated Fees
$52.00
Gross P&L
$-894.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$-946.34
Gross Return
-14.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.61%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $6,063.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.00001014 598,022,620 $6,063.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 5:15pm ET $0.00000800 598,022,620 $4,784.18 $4,757.06 $-1,306.89
(-21.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.00000522 911,314,298 $4,757.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 8:05pm ET $0.00000570 911,314,298 $5,194.49 $5,169.61 +$412.55
(+9.2%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,169.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,830.39
Total Return: -48.30%
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