Compendium › Penelope Swing › SNOW
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SNOW
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 3 trades in period

-2.16%
Last Year Return
$10,422.93
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$10,652.90
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:36

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.5 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-20.2%
EMA20 Dist
-19.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 12%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
66.1/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
6.0/15
Consistency
1.4/10
Raw Quality 119.6/100
× Confidence 0.12 = 13.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (12%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,652.90
Current Value
$10,422.93
Period P&L
$-229.97
Max Drawdown
-3.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.80

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+0.21%
Worst Trade
-1.96%
Avg Trade Return
-0.73%
Avg Hold Time
1.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$62,108.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-229.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-229.97
Gross Return
-2.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.16%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SNOW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,652.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET $240.19 44 $10,568.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:45am ET $235.49 44 $10,361.34 $10,445.87 $-207.02
(-2.0%) 		RESISTANCE
2.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $201.48 51 $10,275.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:15am ET $200.61 51 $10,230.86 $10,401.13 $-44.75
(-0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET $258.14 40 $10,325.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:00am ET $258.68 40 $10,347.20 $10,422.93 +$21.80
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,422.93
Net Profit/Loss: +$422.93
Total Return: +4.23%
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