Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:17:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 54%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.2/35
Total Return
6.3/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 21.9/100
× Confidence 0.54 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (54%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,204
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,068.58
Current Value
$10,477.22
Period P&L
$-591.36
Max Drawdown
-5.2%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
1
Winners / Losers
0 / 1
Best Trade
-5.47%
Worst Trade
-5.47%
Avg Trade Return
-5.47%
Avg Hold Time
1.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$21,034.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-591.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-591.36
Gross Return
-5.34%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 1 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,068.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $337.91 32 $10,813.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:20am ET $319.43 32 $10,221.76 $10,477.22 $-591.36
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,477.22
Net Profit/Loss: +$477.22
Total Return: +4.77%
Back to Penelope Swing