Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:07:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 36.6/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 28.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,151.00
Current Value
$12,201.07
Period P&L
$50.05
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+8.73%
Worst Trade
-5.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
18.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$197,617.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$50.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$50.05
Gross Return
+0.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $12,151.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $348.95 34 $11,864.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $348.71 34 $11,856.31 $12,143.03 $-7.99
(-0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $305.12 39 $11,899.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:40am ET $331.76 39 $12,938.64 $13,181.99 +$1,038.96
(+8.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET $327.24 40 $13,089.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $333.29 40 $13,331.60 $13,423.99 +$242.00
(+1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $295.99 45 $13,319.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET $280.48 45 $12,621.60 $12,726.04 $-697.95
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $244.58 52 $12,718.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $230.45 52 $11,983.28 $11,991.16 $-734.88
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $222.71 53 $11,803.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $226.09 53 $11,982.77 $12,170.52 +$179.36
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
10m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $243.07 50 $12,153.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:15am ET $241.71 50 $12,085.25 $12,102.02 $-68.50
(-0.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $243.57 49 $11,935.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $245.60 49 $12,034.23 $12,201.07 +$99.05
(+0.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,201.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,201.07
Total Return: +22.01%
Back to Penelope Swing