Compendium › Penelope Swing › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 5 trades in period

-3.91%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,037.78
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$11,926.03
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.6/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 24.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-1.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,817
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,926.03
Current Value
$13,037.78
Period P&L
$-466.39
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.75

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
0 / 5
Best Trade
+0.19%
Worst Trade
-0.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.21%
Avg Hold Time
5m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$131,451.01
Estimated Fees
$328.63
Gross P&L
$-466.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-795.02
Gross Return
-3.91%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.67%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,926.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 9:35pm ET $9.85 1,338 $13,175.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 9:40pm ET $9.87 1,338 $13,200.94 $13,200.94 $-40.53
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 9:45pm ET $9.79 1,349 $13,200.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 9:50pm ET $9.79 1,349 $13,204.99 $13,204.99 $-61.97
(+0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 9:55pm ET $9.77 1,351 $13,204.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 10:00pm ET $9.72 1,351 $13,130.67 $13,130.67 $-140.16
(-0.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 10:05pm ET $9.76 1,345 $13,130.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 10:10pm ET $9.73 1,345 $13,082.25 $13,082.25 $-113.96
(-0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 10:15pm ET $9.71 1,347 $13,082.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 10:20pm ET $9.68 1,347 $13,037.78 $13,037.78 $-109.77
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,037.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,037.78
Total Return: +30.38%
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