Compendium › Penelope Swing › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 10 trades in period

-4.96%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,175.53
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$12,548.92
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 22:27:53

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.0/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 30.8/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 25.2

30-Day Momentum

11
+0.3%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.4 Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,814
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-25
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,548.92
Current Value
$13,175.53
Period P&L
$-622.89
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
0 / 10
Best Trade
+0.45%
Worst Trade
-0.40%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
5m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$263,543.81
Estimated Fees
$658.86
Gross P&L
$-622.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,281.75
Gross Return
-4.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.21%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $12,548.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 3:35am ET $6.26 2,099 $13,139.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 3:40am ET $6.28 2,099 $13,181.55 $13,181.55 $-23.82
(+0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 3:45am ET $6.31 2,088 $13,181.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 3:50am ET $6.30 2,088 $13,162.76 $13,162.76 $-84.66
(-0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 3:55am ET $6.27 2,099 $13,162.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:00am ET $6.29 2,099 $13,190.04 $13,190.04 $-38.60
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:05am ET $6.29 2,097 $13,190.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:10am ET $6.30 2,097 $13,208.91 $13,208.91 $-47.12
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:15am ET $6.30 2,098 $13,208.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:20am ET $6.28 2,098 $13,171.15 $13,171.15 $-103.71
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:25am ET $6.27 2,100 $13,171.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:30am ET $6.26 2,100 $13,148.05 $13,148.05 $-88.89
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:35am ET $6.23 2,110 $13,148.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:40am ET $6.26 2,110 $13,207.14 $13,207.14 $-6.80
(+0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:45am ET $6.28 2,105 $13,207.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 4:50am ET $6.25 2,105 $13,154.52 $13,154.52 $-118.52
(-0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 4:55am ET $6.26 2,101 $13,154.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 5:00am ET $6.28 2,101 $13,190.24 $13,190.24 $-30.14
(+0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 21, 2026 5:05am ET $6.28 2,102 $13,190.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 21, 2026 5:10am ET $6.27 2,102 $13,175.53 $13,175.53 $-80.63
(-0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,175.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,175.53
Total Return: +31.76%
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