Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:02

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 9.6/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 8.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,585.65
Current Value
$8,363.98
Period P&L
$-221.68
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+7.80%
Worst Trade
-5.39%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
19.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$150,108.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-221.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-221.68
Gross Return
-2.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $8,585.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $13.23 648 $8,573.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $13.16 648 $8,530.92 $8,543.54 $-42.12
(-0.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $13.53 631 $8,536.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:00am ET $12.80 631 $8,076.74 $8,083.73 $-459.81
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $11.88 680 $8,078.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $11.96 680 $8,132.73 $8,137.99 +$54.26
(+0.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $12.46 653 $8,136.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:40am ET $12.46 653 $8,136.38 $8,137.99 $0.00
(+0.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $10.57 769 $8,132.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $11.40 769 $8,766.60 $8,772.41 +$634.42
(+7.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $10.80 812 $8,769.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET $10.25 812 $8,323.08 $8,325.81 $-446.60
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $9.86 844 $8,321.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $9.77 844 $8,245.88 $8,250.69 $-75.12
(-0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $11.13 741 $8,243.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET $11.30 741 $8,373.23 $8,380.29 +$129.60
(+1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $10.99 762 $8,374.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $10.97 762 $8,358.07 $8,363.98 $-16.31
(-0.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,363.98
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,636.02
Total Return: -16.36%
Back to Penelope Swing