Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:20:38

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 8.4/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 8.0

30-Day Momentum

51
+12.2%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
6.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 76.6 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+43 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,140.71
Current Value
$7,963.41
Period P&L
$-2,177.28
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
8 / 9
Best Trade
+9.49%
Worst Trade
-5.94%
Avg Trade Return
-1.33%
Avg Hold Time
12.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$268,775.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,177.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,177.28
Gross Return
-21.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,140.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $217.13 46 $9,987.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET $205.77 46 $9,465.42 $9,618.13 $-522.56
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $233.84 41 $9,587.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 1:45pm ET $221.29 41 $9,072.89 $9,103.58 $-514.55
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $168.36 54 $9,091.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $163.09 54 $8,806.77 $8,818.91 $-284.67
(-3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $180.71 48 $8,674.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $184.74 48 $8,867.52 $9,012.11 +$193.20
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $168.86 53 $8,949.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:35am ET $158.84 53 $8,418.26 $8,480.79 $-531.32
(-5.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:50am ET $147.01 57 $8,379.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $138.70 57 $7,905.73 $8,007.23 $-473.55
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $141.82 56 $7,941.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:05pm ET $133.63 56 $7,483.25 $7,548.85 $-458.39
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $111.00 68 $7,548.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:05am ET $105.34 68 $7,163.12 $7,163.96 $-384.89
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:05am ET $102.37 69 $7,063.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:35am ET $96.68 69 $6,670.97 $6,771.40 $-392.56
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $112.69 60 $6,761.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET $115.56 60 $6,933.60 $6,943.30 +$171.90
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET $131.66 52 $6,846.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 10:50am ET $133.41 52 $6,937.32 $7,034.04 +$90.74
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $134.85 52 $7,012.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET $135.86 52 $7,064.76 $7,086.60 +$52.56
(+0.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $120.61 58 $6,995.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:00am ET $120.82 58 $7,007.85 $7,099.07 +$12.47
(+0.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $109.43 64 $7,003.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $119.81 64 $7,667.87 $7,763.42 +$664.35
(+9.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $103.26 75 $7,744.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $105.51 75 $7,913.25 $7,932.17 +$168.75
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $115.81 68 $7,875.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $117.36 68 $7,980.48 $8,037.57 +$105.40
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $101.44 79 $8,014.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $100.50 79 $7,939.89 $7,963.41 $-74.16
(-0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,963.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,036.59
Total Return: -20.37%
Back to Penelope Swing