Compendium › Penelope Swing › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 5 trades in period

+0.72%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,009.89
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,930.75
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.6/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
11.1/15
Profit Factor
4.0/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 34.9/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 23.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,930.75
Current Value
$11,009.89
Period P&L
$79.16
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+0.66%
Worst Trade
-0.65%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
5m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$109,056.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$79.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$79.16
Gross Return
+0.72%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,930.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:50am ET $61.05 179 $10,927.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:55am ET $61.33 179 $10,977.18 $10,979.96 +$49.23
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:05am ET $59.62 184 $10,970.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:10am ET $59.23 184 $10,898.30 $10,908.18 $-71.78
(-0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $69.88 156 $10,901.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:20am ET $69.74 156 $10,879.44 $10,886.34 $-21.84
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $141.58 76 $10,760.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:45am ET $142.51 76 $10,830.76 $10,957.02 +$70.68
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:50am ET $145.73 75 $10,929.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:55am ET $146.43 75 $10,982.25 $11,009.89 +$52.87
(+0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,009.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,009.89
Total Return: +10.10%
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