Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:06:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 62%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 10.6/100
× Confidence 0.62 = 6.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (62%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,994.75
Current Value
$9,214.90
Period P&L
$220.14
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+7.73%
Worst Trade
-5.58%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
8.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$209,917.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$220.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$220.14
Gross Return
+2.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $8,994.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:05am ET $723.33 12 $8,679.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 10:10am ET $731.57 12 $8,778.78 $9,093.58 +$98.82
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:55am ET $695.56 13 $9,042.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:00am ET $700.19 13 $9,102.45 $9,153.75 +$60.17
(+0.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET $989.61 9 $8,906.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $953.80 9 $8,584.20 $8,831.46 $-322.29
(-3.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $857.63 10 $8,576.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $867.66 10 $8,676.65 $8,931.86 +$100.40
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,078.93 8 $8,631.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $1,073.83 8 $8,590.68 $8,891.14 $-40.72
(-0.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $1,053.29 8 $8,426.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 2:40pm ET $1,134.69 8 $9,077.52 $9,542.38 +$651.24
(+7.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 10:35am ET $1,066.35 8 $8,530.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:30am ET $1,007.27 8 $8,058.16 $9,069.70 $-472.68
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $914.00 9 $8,226.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET $927.05 9 $8,343.45 $9,187.15 +$117.45
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $912.67 10 $9,126.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $977.69 10 $9,776.89 $9,837.31 +$650.16
(+7.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $817.59 12 $9,811.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET $772.00 12 $9,264.00 $9,290.23 $-547.08
(-5.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $846.34 10 $8,463.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $830.92 10 $8,309.20 $9,136.03 $-154.20
(-1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $842.78 10 $8,427.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:40am ET $850.67 10 $8,506.67 $9,214.90 +$78.87
(+0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,214.90
Net Profit/Loss: $-785.10
Total Return: -7.85%
Back to Penelope Swing