Compendium › Penelope Swing › RBLX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RBLX
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 11 trades executed

+8.61%
2 Years Return
$12,002.46
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,051.32
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:43:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.0/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 44.8/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 24.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
54,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
533 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,051.32
Current Value
$12,002.46
Total P&L
$951.14
Max Drawdown
-2.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+9.19%
Worst Trade
-6.13%
Avg Trade Return
+1.13%
Avg Hold Time
1.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$192,469.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$951.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$951.14
Gross Return
+8.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 533 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,051.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET $38.12 289 $11,016.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 8, 2024 11:10am ET $39.78 289 $11,496.42 $11,531.06 +$479.74
(+4.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 15, 2025 9:30am ET $112.84 102 $11,509.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 15, 2025 11:05am ET $116.20 102 $11,852.40 $11,873.78 +$342.72
(+3.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $120.53 98 $11,811.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 11:10am ET $120.00 98 $11,760.00 $11,821.84 $-51.94
(-0.4%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:20am ET $67.64 174 $11,768.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 2:05pm ET $66.15 174 $11,509.23 $11,562.58 $-259.26
(-2.2%) 		RESISTANCE
3.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET $61.19 188 $11,504.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET $66.82 188 $12,562.16 $12,620.08 +$1,057.50
(+9.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.1h held
6 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $42.52 296 $12,585.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $43.10 296 $12,759.08 $12,793.24 +$173.16
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $47.15 271 $12,777.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 11:00am ET $47.13 271 $12,770.88 $12,786.46 $-6.78
(-0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $39.95 320 $12,784.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $37.50 320 $12,000.00 $12,002.46 $-784.00
(-6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,002.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,002.46
Total Return: +20.02%
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