Compendium › Penelope Swing › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.89%
Year to Date Return
$12,283.46
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$12,520.29
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.0/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
8.8/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 51.0/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,006
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,520.29
Current Value
$12,283.46
Period P&L
$-236.86
Max Drawdown
-2.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.60

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.52%
Worst Trade
-1.70%
Avg Trade Return
-0.48%
Avg Hold Time
29m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$98,721.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-236.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-236.86
Gross Return
-1.89%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $12,520.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $154.13 81 $12,484.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET $154.93 81 $12,549.33 $12,584.71 +$64.39
(+0.5%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 10:40am ET $185.19 67 $12,407.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:45am ET $184.39 67 $12,354.13 $12,531.11 $-53.60
(-0.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $200.01 62 $12,400.62 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $196.61 62 $12,189.82 $12,320.31 $-210.80
(-1.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $146.82 83 $12,185.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $146.37 83 $12,148.79 $12,283.46 $-36.85
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,283.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,283.46
Total Return: +22.83%
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