Compendium › Penelope Swing › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 17 trades in period

-9.36%
Year to Date Return
$8,363.98
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$9,227.27
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:04:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 9.6/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 8.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,015
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,227.27
Current Value
$8,363.98
Period P&L
$-863.30
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
7 / 10
Best Trade
+7.80%
Worst Trade
-5.39%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
10.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$296,361.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-863.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$-863.30
Gross Return
-9.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,227.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $10.40 887 $9,220.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 11:05am ET $10.68 887 $9,468.73 $9,475.64 +$248.36
(+2.7%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $7.55 1,254 $9,473.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:40am ET $7.47 1,254 $9,361.11 $9,362.78 $-112.86
(-1.2%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:20am ET $8.77 1,068 $9,361.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $8.66 1,068 $9,248.88 $9,250.64 $-112.14
(-1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $8.52 1,086 $9,247.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET $8.53 1,086 $9,269.01 $9,272.36 +$21.72
(+0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET $7.89 1,174 $9,268.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET $7.89 1,174 $9,262.74 $9,266.37 $-5.99
(-0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:25am ET $12.37 749 $9,265.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $12.07 749 $9,040.35 $9,041.59 $-224.78
(-2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $12.72 711 $9,040.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $12.06 711 $8,574.66 $8,575.89 $-465.70
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:40am ET $13.16 651 $8,570.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:45am ET $13.18 651 $8,580.18 $8,585.66 +$9.77
(+0.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $13.23 648 $8,573.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $13.16 648 $8,530.92 $8,543.54 $-42.12
(-0.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $13.53 631 $8,536.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:00am ET $12.80 631 $8,076.74 $8,083.73 $-459.81
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $11.88 680 $8,078.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $11.96 680 $8,132.73 $8,137.99 +$54.26
(+0.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $12.46 653 $8,136.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 10:40am ET $12.46 653 $8,136.38 $8,137.99 $0.00
(+0.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $10.57 769 $8,132.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $11.40 769 $8,766.60 $8,772.41 +$634.42
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $10.80 812 $8,769.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:50am ET $10.25 812 $8,323.08 $8,325.81 $-446.60
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $9.86 844 $8,321.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $9.77 844 $8,245.88 $8,250.69 $-75.12
(-0.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $11.13 741 $8,243.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET $11.30 741 $8,373.23 $8,380.29 +$129.60
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $10.99 762 $8,374.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $10.97 762 $8,358.07 $8,363.98 $-16.31
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,363.98
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,636.02
Total Return: -16.36%
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