Compendium › Penelope Swing › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-1.32%
Year to Date Return
$10,306.15
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$10,444.14
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:53:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
5.1/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 20.8/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 12.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,488
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,444.14
Current Value
$10,306.15
Period P&L
$-137.99
Max Drawdown
-5.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+1.31%
Worst Trade
-2.28%
Avg Trade Return
-0.43%
Avg Hold Time
20m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$62,522.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-137.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-137.99
Gross Return
-1.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,444.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:35am ET $17.19 607 $10,431.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $17.41 607 $10,567.87 $10,580.72 +$136.58
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $17.76 595 $10,567.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:35am ET $17.35 595 $10,326.22 $10,339.27 $-241.45
(-2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET $15.63 661 $10,331.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET $15.58 661 $10,298.31 $10,306.15 $-33.12
(-0.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,306.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$306.15
Total Return: +3.06%
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