Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:16:40

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
38.6 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-0.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.1%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.4/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 20.9/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 15.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-3.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
73,201
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-06-21 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,168.80
Current Value
$10,676.98
Total P&L
$-491.83
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+2.46%
Worst Trade
-3.82%
Avg Trade Return
-0.43%
Avg Hold Time
10.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,950.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-491.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-491.83
Gross Return
-4.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMC Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,168.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2024 9:40am ET $5.15 2,168 $11,164.98
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2024 12:20pm ET $5.07 2,168 $10,989.59 $10,993.41 $-175.39
(-1.6%)
RESISTANCE
2.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2024 9:40am ET $4.30 2,556 $10,990.80
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2024 11:05am ET $4.40 2,556 $11,246.40 $11,249.01 +$255.60
(+2.3%)
RESISTANCE
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 6, 2024 9:30am ET $4.80 2,345 $11,244.28
🔴 SELL Dec 6, 2024 11:25am ET $4.75 2,345 $11,127.03 $11,131.76 $-117.25
(-1.0%)
RESISTANCE
1.9h held
4 🟢 BUY May 28, 2025 9:40am ET $3.67 3,033 $11,131.11
🔴 SELL May 28, 2025 12:15pm ET $3.53 3,033 $10,705.58 $10,706.23 $-425.53
(-3.8%)
RESISTANCE
2.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2025 9:35am ET $2.82 3,802 $10,704.91
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2025 11:15am ET $2.89 3,802 $10,968.77 $10,970.09 +$263.86
(+2.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $1.64 6,692 $10,969.53
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET $1.64 6,692 $10,974.88 $10,975.44 +$5.35
(+0.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1.37 8,011 $10,975.07
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:10am ET $1.38 8,011 $11,015.13 $11,015.50 +$40.05
(+0.4%)
RESISTANCE
1.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:20am ET $1.91 5,752 $11,015.08
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 11:25am ET $1.89 5,752 $10,879.33 $10,879.75 $-135.75
(-1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $1.88 5,786 $10,878.26
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1.84 5,786 $10,646.24 $10,647.73 $-232.02
(-2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:10am ET $1.82 5,850 $10,647.00
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1.83 5,850 $10,676.25 $10,676.98 +$29.25
(+0.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,676.98
Net Profit/Loss: +$676.98
Total Return: +6.77%
Back to Penelope Swing