Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:52:20

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 36.6/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 28.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
61,253
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,644.60
Current Value
$12,201.07
Total P&L
$556.45
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
22
Winners / Losers
12 / 10
Best Trade
+8.73%
Worst Trade
-6.01%
Avg Trade Return
+0.30%
Avg Hold Time
7.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$519,861.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$556.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$556.45
Gross Return
+4.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $11,644.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2024 10:35am ET $148.95 78 $11,617.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2024 12:05pm ET $149.86 78 $11,689.08 $11,715.98 +$71.37
(+0.6%)
RESISTANCE
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2025 9:45am ET $163.79 71 $11,628.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2025 11:10am ET $166.23 71 $11,802.44 $11,889.62 +$173.64
(+1.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET $149.53 79 $11,812.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2025 12:35pm ET $146.01 79 $11,534.40 $11,611.14 $-278.48
(-2.4%)
RESISTANCE
3.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:35am ET $90.40 128 $11,571.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $84.97 128 $10,876.16 $10,916.10 $-695.04
(-6.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:30am ET $85.89 127 $10,908.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 1:05pm ET $86.97 127 $11,045.19 $11,052.95 +$136.84
(+1.2%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:10am ET $98.39 112 $11,019.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 11:05am ET $101.31 112 $11,346.16 $11,379.43 +$326.48
(+3.0%)
RESISTANCE
54m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $141.22 80 $11,297.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 11:25am ET $143.66 80 $11,492.40 $11,574.24 +$194.81
(+1.7%)
RESISTANCE
1.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:05am ET $213.15 54 $11,510.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:10am ET $212.03 54 $11,449.62 $11,513.76 $-60.48
(-0.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:25am ET $200.33 57 $11,418.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $199.58 57 $11,376.06 $11,471.01 $-42.75
(-0.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:50am ET $219.38 52 $11,407.78 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:55am ET $222.20 52 $11,554.14 $11,617.38 +$146.37
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $375.35 30 $11,260.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $404.52 30 $12,135.60 $12,492.48 +$875.10
(+7.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $368.80 33 $12,170.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $349.75 33 $11,541.75 $11,863.67 $-628.81
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $327.98 36 $11,807.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $324.41 36 $11,678.76 $11,735.15 $-128.52
(-1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $368.96 31 $11,437.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $382.38 31 $11,853.78 $12,151.02 +$415.87
(+3.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $348.95 34 $11,864.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $348.71 34 $11,856.31 $12,143.03 $-7.99
(-0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $305.12 39 $11,899.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:40am ET $331.76 39 $12,938.64 $13,181.99 +$1,038.96
(+8.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET $327.24 40 $13,089.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $333.29 40 $13,331.60 $13,423.99 +$242.00
(+1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET $295.99 45 $13,319.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET $280.48 45 $12,621.60 $12,726.04 $-697.95
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $244.58 52 $12,718.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $230.45 52 $11,983.28 $11,991.16 $-734.88
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $222.71 53 $11,803.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $226.09 53 $11,982.77 $12,170.52 +$179.36
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
10m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $243.07 50 $12,153.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:15am ET $241.71 50 $12,085.25 $12,102.02 $-68.50
(-0.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $243.57 49 $11,935.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $245.60 49 $12,034.23 $12,201.07 +$99.05
(+0.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,201.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,201.07
Total Return: +22.01%
Back to Penelope Swing