Compendium › Penelope Swing › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 5 trades executed

-7.37%
2 Years Return
$9,168.61
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$9,897.92
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:34:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 22, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 5%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
86.4/35
Total Return
52.8/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
0.8/10
Raw Quality 293.7/100
× Confidence 0.05 = 15.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (5%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
48,495
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
529 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,897.92
Current Value
$9,168.61
Total P&L
$-729.31
Max Drawdown
-1.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.84

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.04%
Worst Trade
-5.63%
Avg Trade Return
-1.89%
Avg Hold Time
12.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$77,389.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-729.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-729.31
Gross Return
-7.37%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.37%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 529 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,897.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET $258.76 38 $9,832.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 11:05am ET $258.87 38 $9,837.06 $9,902.29 +$4.37
(+0.0%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 3:25pm ET $224.05 44 $9,858.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $223.58 44 $9,837.52 $9,881.61 $-20.68
(-0.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET $227.51 43 $9,783.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET $223.48 43 $9,609.43 $9,707.89 $-173.72
(-1.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.85 44 $9,585.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $205.59 44 $9,046.12 $9,168.61 $-539.28
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,168.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-831.39
Total Return: -8.31%
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